WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 09-13-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
09-13-25 |
74 |
|
80 |
61 |
|
62 |
79 |
|
81 |
60 |
|
61 |
77 |
|
80 |
59 |
|
61 |
76 |
|
80 |
58 |
|
61 |
09-12-25 |
59 |
63.5 |
79 |
76 |
56.1 |
61 |
57 |
|
81 |
75 |
|
63 |
61 |
|
80 |
78 |
|
60 |
60 |
|
79 |
76 |
|
61 |
09-11-25 |
81 |
77.7 |
80 |
59 |
52.7 |
57 |
76 |
63.5 |
77 |
55 |
56.1 |
59 |
74 |
|
80 |
60 |
|
64 |
77 |
|
82 |
59 |
|
63 |
09-10-25 |
69 |
64.8 |
72 |
58 |
61.0 |
56 |
79 |
77.7 |
80 |
57 |
52.7 |
58 |
74 |
63.5 |
77 |
57 |
56.1 |
60 |
73 |
|
80 |
59 |
|
63 |
09-09-25 |
54 |
64.4 |
77 |
73 |
48.6 |
59 |
58 |
64.8 |
73 |
71 |
61.0 |
57 |
58 |
77.7 |
81 |
78 |
52.7 |
57 |
59 |
63.5 |
77 |
74 |
56.1 |
56 |
09-08-25 |
54 |
78.4 |
86 |
72 |
71.4 |
60 |
54 |
64.4 |
73 |
73 |
48.6 |
56 |
55 |
64.8 |
75 |
71 |
61.0 |
57 |
56 |
77.7 |
76 |
78 |
52.7 |
60 |
09-07-25 |
64 |
79.9 |
86 |
71 |
71.4 |
60 |
55 |
78.4 |
73 |
74 |
71.4 |
56 |
55 |
64.4 |
75 |
73 |
48.6 |
57 |
58 |
64.8 |
76 |
71 |
61.0 |
60 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
10.5 |
|
8.6 |
9.1 |
|
7.9 |
10.9 |
|
7.6 |
8.5 |
|
7.0 |
12.4 |
|
9.4 |
15.2 |
|
5.2 |
11.0 |
|
8.8 |
17.7 |
|
2.8 |
Net Error |
-8.0 |
|
8.6 |
8.0 |
|
-1.4 |
-5.4 |
|
5.4 |
8.0 |
|
-0.8 |
-7.1 |
|
9.4 |
15.2 |
|
3.2 |
-11.0 |
|
7.7 |
17.7 |
|
2.1 |
Std Dev |
7.3 |
|
4.2 |
8.8 |
|
2.9 |
4.7 |
|
3.6 |
3.9 |
|
2.4 |
0.9 |
|
2.1 |
7.1 |
|
0.6 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 09-13-25 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
09-13-25 |
74 |
|
81 |
61 |
|
61 |
79 |
|
80 |
60 |
|
60 |
77 |
|
80 |
59 |
|
62 |
76 |
|
81 |
58 |
|
63 |
09-12-25 |
76 |
63.5 |
75 |
57 |
53.6 |
57 |
75 |
|
80 |
61 |
|
62 |
78 |
|
81 |
60 |
|
60 |
76 |
|
79 |
59 |
|
57 |
09-11-25 |
81 |
77.7 |
83 |
59 |
56.1 |
61 |
76 |
63.5 |
76 |
55 |
53.6 |
60 |
74 |
|
80 |
60 |
|
64 |
77 |
|
81 |
59 |
|
63 |
09-10-25 |
69 |
64.8 |
73 |
58 |
52.7 |
56 |
79 |
77.7 |
80 |
57 |
56.1 |
58 |
74 |
63.5 |
78 |
57 |
53.6 |
61 |
73 |
|
78 |
59 |
|
62 |
09-09-25 |
54 |
64.4 |
71 |
73 |
61.0 |
58 |
58 |
64.8 |
73 |
71 |
52.7 |
56 |
58 |
77.7 |
80 |
78 |
56.1 |
58 |
59 |
63.5 |
76 |
74 |
53.6 |
60 |
09-08-25 |
54 |
78.4 |
86 |
72 |
48.6 |
60 |
54 |
64.4 |
73 |
73 |
61.0 |
56 |
55 |
64.8 |
75 |
71 |
52.7 |
57 |
56 |
77.7 |
76 |
78 |
56.1 |
60 |
09-07-25 |
68 |
79.9 |
86 |
54 |
71.4 |
60 |
74 |
78.4 |
73 |
55 |
48.6 |
56 |
73 |
64.4 |
75 |
57 |
61.0 |
57 |
71 |
64.8 |
76 |
57 |
52.7 |
60 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
40.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
11.1 |
|
7.6 |
10.7 |
|
6.2 |
7.1 |
|
7.4 |
7.8 |
|
4.8 |
12.2 |
|
9.4 |
11.9 |
|
4.4 |
10.8 |
|
8.5 |
15.5 |
|
5.9 |
Net Error |
-4.5 |
|
7.6 |
4.9 |
|
1.4 |
-1.6 |
|
5.2 |
7.8 |
|
2.8 |
-2.6 |
|
9.4 |
9.9 |
|
2.4 |
-6.7 |
|
7.3 |
15.5 |
|
5.9 |
Std Dev |
6.9 |
|
1.9 |
7.1 |
|
3.0 |
3.5 |
|
3.2 |
6.3 |
|
1.6 |
0.8 |
|
2.6 |
4.3 |
|
1.5 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 09-13-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
09-13-25 |
73 |
|
62 |
60 |
|
82 |
78 |
|
60 |
60 |
|
80 |
78 |
|
61 |
59 |
|
78 |
76 |
|
62 |
58 |
|
77 |
09-12-25 |
76 |
53.6 |
73 |
59 |
63.5 |
56 |
75 |
|
80 |
62 |
|
62 |
77 |
|
82 |
60 |
|
62 |
76 |
|
79 |
59 |
|
60 |
09-11-25 |
59 |
77.7 |
61 |
74 |
56.1 |
76 |
58 |
53.6 |
61 |
74 |
63.5 |
81 |
61 |
|
64 |
78 |
|
78 |
59 |
|
61 |
76 |
|
79 |
09-10-25 |
69 |
52.7 |
54 |
57 |
64.8 |
79 |
79 |
77.7 |
59 |
58 |
56.1 |
77 |
74 |
53.6 |
60 |
57 |
63.5 |
79 |
73 |
|
62 |
59 |
|
81 |
09-09-25 |
72 |
61.0 |
71 |
59 |
64.4 |
58 |
67 |
52.7 |
73 |
58 |
64.8 |
56 |
78 |
77.7 |
80 |
59 |
56.1 |
58 |
74 |
53.6 |
76 |
57 |
63.5 |
60 |
09-08-25 |
69 |
78.4 |
86 |
54 |
48.6 |
60 |
73 |
61.0 |
73 |
58 |
64.4 |
56 |
70 |
52.7 |
75 |
59 |
64.8 |
57 |
78 |
77.7 |
76 |
58 |
56.1 |
60 |
09-07-25 |
68 |
79.9 |
86 |
54 |
71.4 |
60 |
73 |
78.4 |
73 |
55 |
48.6 |
56 |
73 |
61.0 |
75 |
56 |
64.4 |
57 |
71 |
52.7 |
76 |
56 |
64.8 |
60 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
0.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
15.0 |
|
10.2 |
9.7 |
|
11.8 |
7.5 |
|
12.8 |
6.4 |
|
12.6 |
12.5 |
|
11.3 |
5.9 |
|
8.2 |
13.0 |
|
15.8 |
5.7 |
|
4.1 |
Net Error |
1.6 |
|
4.6 |
-2.0 |
|
3.4 |
5.3 |
|
3.1 |
1.1 |
|
5.7 |
12.5 |
|
11.3 |
-4.5 |
|
0.5 |
13.0 |
|
14.7 |
-4.5 |
|
-1.5 |
Std Dev |
4.4 |
|
6.0 |
4.8 |
|
4.5 |
4.3 |
|
4.9 |
2.7 |
|
4.6 |
4.0 |
|
2.4 |
0.3 |
|
3.7 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 09-12-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
09-12-25 |
76 |
|
56 |
59 |
|
79 |
75 |
|
63 |
62 |
|
81 |
77 |
|
61 |
60 |
|
81 |
76 |
|
62 |
59 |
|
82 |
09-11-25 |
59 |
56.1 |
53 |
74 |
77.7 |
76 |
58 |
|
60 |
74 |
|
81 |
61 |
|
62 |
78 |
|
81 |
59 |
|
60 |
76 |
|
80 |
09-10-25 |
57 |
52.7 |
55 |
79 |
64.8 |
80 |
58 |
56.1 |
57 |
74 |
77.7 |
78 |
57 |
|
61 |
73 |
|
80 |
59 |
|
62 |
75 |
|
82 |
09-09-25 |
59 |
61.0 |
58 |
67 |
64.4 |
70 |
58 |
52.7 |
56 |
78 |
64.8 |
80 |
59 |
56.1 |
58 |
74 |
77.7 |
77 |
57 |
|
55 |
72 |
|
80 |
09-08-25 |
69 |
48.6 |
49 |
54 |
78.4 |
75 |
73 |
61.0 |
56 |
58 |
64.4 |
71 |
70 |
52.7 |
57 |
59 |
64.8 |
82 |
78 |
56.1 |
57 |
58 |
77.7 |
76 |
09-07-25 |
54 |
71.4 |
86 |
73 |
79.9 |
60 |
55 |
48.6 |
73 |
73 |
78.4 |
56 |
56 |
61.0 |
75 |
71 |
64.4 |
57 |
56 |
52.7 |
76 |
78 |
64.8 |
60 |
09-06-25 |
64 |
79.9 |
86 |
71 |
71.4 |
60 |
55 |
71.4 |
73 |
74 |
79.9 |
56 |
55 |
48.6 |
75 |
73 |
78.4 |
57 |
58 |
61.0 |
76 |
71 |
64.4 |
60 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
10.5 |
|
4.9 |
8.7 |
|
9.5 |
8.4 |
|
7.0 |
6.9 |
|
13.7 |
7.9 |
|
11.7 |
5.4 |
|
11.7 |
9.4 |
|
13.1 |
13.2 |
|
3.6 |
Net Error |
-1.3 |
|
2.9 |
-3.1 |
|
-2.6 |
1.8 |
|
5.0 |
-1.6 |
|
-4.8 |
5.4 |
|
11.7 |
-2.1 |
|
-3.1 |
7.4 |
|
13.1 |
0.0 |
|
-3.6 |
Std Dev |
7.2 |
|
4.6 |
7.6 |
|
6.5 |
3.6 |
|
3.3 |
3.2 |
|
6.8 |
2.5 |
|
4.9 |
0.8 |
|
5.5 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|