WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-09-20 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-09-20 73   89 87 ↓   72 72   79 82 ↓   73 72   89 85 ↓   74 72   87 86   74
07-08-20 <75 83.1 88 85 70.7 72 <75   89 85   72 <75   78 <85   71 <75   87 85   72
07-07-20 66 73.6 80 80 ↓ 66.7 70 70 83.1 85 85 ↓ 70.7 72 70   88 87 ↓   71 73   81 85   71
07-06-20 71 93.9 87 87 ↓ 69.6 69 68 73.6 85 83 ↓ 66.7 69 72 83.1 85 86 ↓ 70.7 71 73   87 88   72
07-05-20 84 89.2 87 70 66.7 70 88 93.9 90 69 69.6 70 81 73.6 87 70 66.7 70 86 83.1 87 73 70.7 72
07-04-20 81 84.7 81 67 64.0 67 85 89.2 85 69 66.7 69 84 93.9 83 69 69.6 67 85 73.6 82 71 66.7 71
07-03-20 >85 91.0 87 65 71.6 65 <85 84.7 83 >65 64.0 67 85 89.2 86 70 66.7 68 >85 93.9 89 70 69.6 70
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 2
% Succ     0.0     33.3     40.0 20.0   40.0     25.0 25.0   50.0     0.0 33.3   66.7
Ave Error 35.6   4.7 9.7   3.0 22.7   4.6 19.5   1.9 8.2   7.4 5.6   1.9 36.1   5.7 2.3   2.0
Net Error -35.6   -0.9 7.5   0.6 -22.7   0.7 -6.3   1.9 -4.5   0.3 5.3   0.6 -26.5   2.5 2.3   2.0
Std Dev 29.3   1.6 5.5   1.2 11.5   3.3 8.9   0.7 1.5   2.7 4.8   0.8 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 07-08-20 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-08-20 84   86 73   73 87 ↓   89 72 ↑   71 83 ↓   80 72   72 85   89 72   73
07-07-20 80 ↓ 73.6 79 70 70.7 70 85 ↓   86 70   72 87 ↓   88 73   71 85   79 73   71
07-06-20 87 ↓ 93.9 94 68 66.7 70 83 ↓ 73.6 85 72 70.7 72 86 ↓   86 73   72 88   87 73   71
07-05-20 84 ↓ 89.2 87 70 69.6 70 88 93.9 90 69 66.7 70 81 73.6 85 70 70.7 71 86   86 73   73
07-04-20 83 ↓ 84.7 85 67 66.7 68 85 89.2 87 69 69.6 70 84 93.9 88 69 66.7 70 85 73.6 83 71 70.7 70
07-03-20 >85 91.0 88 65 64.0 67 <85 84.7 82 >65 66.7 68 85 89.2 86 70 69.6 69 >85 93.9 83 70 66.7 66
07-02-20 >85 91.2 89 <75 71.6 74 85 91.0 88 65 64.0 67 <85 84.7 82 >65 66.7 66 <85 89.2 85 >65 69.6 69
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 5 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 3
% Succ 16.7   33.3 83.3   50.0     0.0 60.0   60.0     0.0 50.0   75.0     0.0 33.3   100.0
Ave Error 33.7   2.2 12.6   1.9 22.0   4.6 14.4   1.9 26.6   5.8 17.5   1.2 64.8   8.2 24.4   0.7
Net Error -31.6   -0.3 -11.6   1.6 -18.3   -0.1 -12.5   1.9 -22.9   -0.1 -16.2   0.6 -57.2   -1.9 -22.0   -0.7
Std Dev 33.1   1.8 10.8   1.1 12.2   3.2 10.1   1.0 9.6   2.8 8.4   0.5 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-08-20 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-08-20 73   72 87 ↓   88 72   72 82 ↓   78 72   73 85 ↓   88 72   74 86   87
07-07-20 80 ↓ 70.7 69 70 73.6 87 85 ↓   73 70   88 87 ↓   71 73   80 85   72 73   87
07-06-20 67 66.7 66 77 93.9 85 70 70.7 71 85 ↓ 73.6 86 73   73 88 ↓   88 73   73 85   78
07-05-20 84 ↓ 69.6 71 69 89.2 90 91 ↓ 66.7 70 70 93.9 86 82 ↓ 70.7 71 73 73.6 83 86   71 73   86
07-04-20 83 ↓ 66.7 67 67 84.7 87 87 69.6 70 70 89.2 87 87 66.7 69 68 93.9 86 83 70.7 73 70 73.6 87
07-03-20 88 ↓ 64.0 64 66 91.0 80 82 ↓ 66.7 66 67 84.7 86 84 69.6 68 69 89.2 80 85 66.7 64 69 93.9 82
07-02-20 87 71.6 72 71 91.2 86 88 ↓ 64.0 66 66 91.0 82 81 66.7 67 66 84.7 85 84 69.6 70 69 89.2 87
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 6 0 1 1 4 0 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 0 0
% Succ 16.7   100.0     16.7 20.0   80.0     20.0     75.0 25.0   25.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 13.3   0.8 17.3   6.9 16.3   1.3 19.4   6.6 15.1   1.1 16.4   6.7 15.0   1.8 16.2   9.2
Net Error 13.3   0.0 -17.3   -1.4 16.1   1.1 -14.9   -1.1 15.1   0.3 -16.4   -1.9 15.0   0.0 -16.2   -0.2
Std Dev 7.2   0.6 6.5   4.5 7.9   1.1 4.1   3.3 1.9   0.4 7.9   1.4 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 07-08-20 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-08-20 73   72 87 ↓   88 72   73 82 ↓   78 72   73 85 ↓   88 72   73 86   87
07-07-20 80 ↓ 70.7 70 70 73.6 86 85 ↓   72 70   88 87 ↓   70 73   79 85   70 73   88
07-06-20 68 66.7 66 77 93.9 83 70 70.7 71 85 ↓ 73.6 86 73   72 88 ↓   87 73   72 85   80
07-05-20 69 ↑ 69.6 72 91 ↓ 89.2 89 70 66.7 70 82 ↓ 93.9 85 73 70.7 71 86 ↓ 73.6 85 73   72 88   87
07-04-20 67 66.7 66 87 84.7 86 70 69.6 70 87 89.2 89 68 66.7 69 83 93.9 86 70 70.7 72 86 73.6 86
07-03-20 66 64.0 64 82 ↓ 91.0 80 67 66.7 65 84 84.7 85 69 69.6 68 85 ↓ 89.2 80 69 66.7 64 85 93.9 82
07-02-20 71 71.6 71 88 ↓ 91.2 86 66 64.0 66 81 91.0 83 66 66.7 67 84 ↓ 84.7 85 69 69.6 68 86 89.2 89
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 5 1 2 4 4 1 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 0 1
% Succ 83.3   83.3 16.7   33.3 80.0   80.0 20.0   40.0 75.0   75.0 25.0   25.0 66.7   66.7     33.3
Ave Error 2.4   0.9 6.1   6.8 1.3   1.5 7.2   6.0 1.2   1.1 7.1   7.2 1.2   1.9 8.2   8.2
Net Error 2.0   0.0 -4.8   -2.3 1.1   0.9 -2.7   -0.9 0.6   0.3 -0.9   -1.4 0.3   -1.0 0.1   0.1
Std Dev 3.1   0.7 5.2   4.8 1.0   1.1 3.6   4.1 0.5   0.4 2.7   2.1 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0