Atlantic Point Weather

70°F

Bellport, NY, USA

Updated: 09/18/2025 10:30 am

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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts

Updated: 09-18-25 at 11:00 pm

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
09-18-25	62		60	78		79	61		60	81		83	56		55	71		74	52		53	70		73
09-17-25	60	61.0	59	71	75.2	72	61		61	76		79	61		61	80		83	55		53	70		72
09-16-25	60	59.7	77	73	73.9	59	59	61.0	73	72	75.2	62	61		78	77		63	61		81	80		53
09-15-25	59	82.4	79	77	59.4	58	59	59.7	77	74	73.9	58	58	61.0	73	72	75.2	62	61		79	77		63
09-14-25	78	80.2	81	59	58.6	59	76	82.4	80	57	59.4	62	73	59.7	79	59	73.9	61	74	61.0	79	61	75.2	63
09-13-25	74	76.3	80	61	53.6	62	79	80.2	81	60	58.6	61	77	82.4	80	59	59.4	61	76	59.7	80	58	73.9	61
09-12-25	59	63.5	79	76	56.1	61	57	76.3	81	75	53.6	63	61	80.2	80	78	58.6	60	60	82.4	79	76	59.4	61
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	2		2	2		2	3		1	2		0	0		1	1		2	0		0	0		1
% Succ	33.3		33.3	33.3		33.3	60.0		20.0	40.0		0.0			25.0	25.0		50.0			0.0			33.3
Ave Error	5.6		7.1	8.4		5.5	5.9		7.4	5.7		8.7	10.2		8.5	9.5		7.3	17.2		13.9	15.6		8.9
Net Error	-5.5		5.3	6.7		-1.0	-5.9		6.5	3.5		-2.9	-3.6		7.2	0.2		-5.8	2.3		11.6	-4.5		-7.8
Std Dev	8.0		5.7	6.1		4.9	2.9		5.4	3.1		4.7	3.6		1.8	3.1		3.0	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS

Mid-Day Forecasts

Updated: 09-17-25 at 11:00 am

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
09-17-25	71		75	61		62	76		78	61		62	80		84	55		55	70		73	52		52
09-16-25	60	73.9	79	73	61.0	61	59		75	72		61	61		78	77		62	61		81	80		53
09-15-25	78	82.4	84	59	59.7	60	74	73.9	77	58	61.0	59	72		72	61		60	77		79	61		63
09-14-25	78	80.2	85	59	59.4	62	76	82.4	79	57	59.7	59	73	73.9	77	59	61.0	60	74		76	61		59
09-13-25	74	76.3	81	61	58.6	61	79	80.2	80	60	59.4	60	77	82.4	80	59	59.7	62	76	73.9	81	58	61.0	63
09-12-25	76	63.5	75	57	53.6	57	75	76.3	80	61	58.6	62	78	80.2	81	60	59.4	60	76	82.4	79	59	59.7	57
09-11-25	81	77.7	83	59	56.1	61	76	63.5	76	55	53.6	60	74	76.3	80	60	58.6	64	77	80.2	81	59	59.4	63
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	0		1	2		2	3		1	2		3	1		1	4		2	0		1	2		1
% Succ			16.7	33.3		33.3	60.0		20.0	40.0		60.0	25.0		25.0	100.0		50.0			33.3	66.7		33.3
Ave Error	6.4		5.5	3.6		2.3	4.3		4.6	2.0		2.6	2.7		2.5	1.2		2.3	3.9		3.8	1.4		2.8
Net Error	-1.2		5.5	3.3		2.3	0.7		3.1	-0.3		1.5	-2.7		1.3	-0.2		1.8	-2.5		1.5	-1.4		1.0
Std Dev	4.7		3.0	3.9		1.3	2.5		2.1	0.8		1.3	0.9		0.3	0.4		0.7	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS

Evening Forecasts

Updated: 09-17-25 at 5:00 pm

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
09-17-25	72		63	62		79	78		61	61		84	81		55	56		74	71		54	52		74
09-16-25	73	61.0	62	59	73.9	77	72		63	61		79	76		63	61		83	79		53	55		71
09-15-25	79	59.7	61	58	82.4	77	73	61.0	59	59	73.9	74	71		62	61		80	76		64	61		82
09-14-25	78	59.4	62	59	80.2	79	77	59.7	61	57	82.4	77	74	61.0	59	57	73.9	73	72		61	61		80
09-13-25	73	58.6	62	60	76.3	82	78	59.4	60	60	80.2	80	78	59.7	61	59	82.4	78	76	61.0	62	58	73.9	77
09-12-25	76	53.6	73	59	63.5	56	75	58.6	80	62	76.3	62	77	59.4	82	60	80.2	62	76	59.7	79	59	82.4	60
09-11-25	59	77.7	61	74	56.1	76	58	53.6	61	74	63.5	81	61	58.6	64	78	76.3	78	59	59.4	61	76	80.2	79
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	0		2	0		1	0		3	0		2	0		2	1		2	1		2	0		1
% Succ			33.3			16.7			60.0			40.0			50.0	25.0		50.0	33.3		66.7			33.3
Ave Error	17.6		7.4	16.5		7.1	13.7		6.5	17.1		7.5	12.8		7.8	15.6		6.3	10.6		7.3	14.5		8.9
Net Error	11.3		1.8	-10.6		2.4	13.7		5.7	-12.9		-0.5	12.8		6.8	-14.7		-5.5	10.3		7.3	-14.5		-6.8
Std Dev	3.4		6.6	6.2		3.1	2.8		4.1	4.1		4.7	0.1		2.9	0.7		2.7	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS

Nighttime Forecasts

Updated: 09-17-25 at 11:00 pm

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
09-17-25	62		60	78		79	61		60	81		83	56		55	71		74	52		53	70		73
09-16-25	59	61.0	59	72	73.9	72	61		61	76		79	61		61	79		83	55		53	69		72
09-15-25	79	59.7	59	58	82.4	76	73	61.0	59	59	73.9	73	71		60	61		79	76		62	61		81
09-14-25	78	59.4	59	59	80.2	79	77	59.7	59	57	82.4	76	74	61.0	58	57	73.9	75	72		61	61		81
09-13-25	73	58.6	60	60	76.3	81	78	59.4	59	60	80.2	79	78	59.7	61	59	82.4	80	76	61.0	61	58	73.9	79
09-12-25	76	53.6	56	59	63.5	79	75	58.6	63	62	76.3	81	77	59.4	61	60	80.2	81	76	59.7	62	59	82.4	82
09-11-25	59	56.1	53	74	77.7	76	58	53.6	60	74	63.5	81	61	58.6	62	78	76.3	81	59	59.4	60	76	80.2	80
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	1		4	1		3	0		3	0		2	0		2	1		2	1		2	0		2
% Succ	16.7		66.7	16.7		50.0			60.0			40.0			50.0	25.0		50.0	33.3		66.7			66.7
Ave Error	13.3		1.7	12.0		5.2	13.7		2.8	17.1		6.1	12.8		2.3	15.6		2.3	10.6		1.0	14.5		1.9
Net Error	12.6		-0.4	-12.0		1.5	13.7		1.5	-12.9		2.7	12.8		0.8	-14.7		1.1	10.3		1.0	-14.5		1.5
Std Dev	6.8		0.7	8.3		4.7	2.8		1.5	4.1		3.2	0.1		0.3	0.7		0.6	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS