WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 01-18-22 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-18-22 <35   29 <25   35 45   24 30   47 35   29 13   33 <25   8 13   24
01-17-22 32 ↑ 37.0 36 46 ↓ 46.0 41 25   26 31 ↓   31 21 ↑   22 44 ↓   47 30   30 37   34
01-16-22 7 ↑ 6.1 9 40 ↓ 39.9 37 31 ↑ 37.0 33 46 ↓ 46.0 44 24 ↑   27 31 ↓   29 19   21 42   49
01-15-22 10 ↑ 8.4 13 19 ↓ 18.1 24 11 6.1 13 39 ↓ 39.9 35 31 ↑ 37.0 32 46 ↓ 46.0 46 24   24 32   27
01-14-22 <45 33.3 34 10 45.7 44 <25 8.4 11 9 18.1 23 >35 6.1 13 >25 39.9 32 <45 37.0 30 25 46.0 41
01-13-22 <45 26.8 27 <35 49.6 45 <45 33.3 35 11 45.7 46 19 8.4 20 10 18.1 24 35 6.1 12 25 39.9 31
01-12-22 <45 10.9 10 >25 41.5 42 45 26.8 31 <35 49.6 44 >35 33.3 33 10 45.7 37 20 8.4 7 10 18.1 20
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 4 3 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
% Succ 33.3   66.7 50.0   33.3     20.0 40.0   40.0     25.0 25.0   25.0     33.3     33.3
Ave Error 13.1   1.7 21.3   3.4 14.2   3.9 18.9   3.5 14.0   6.0 20.9   5.6 25.8   4.8 14.7   5.3
Net Error -12.3   1.1 -21.0   -1.3 -4.9   2.3 -18.9   -1.5 -8.7   3.3 -20.9   -2.7 1.2   -0.8 -14.7   -4.0
Std Dev 12.5   1.5 19.7   1.5 6.1   1.5 12.4   1.1 4.0   0.5 10.5   2.8 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 01-18-22 at 6:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-18-22 34 ↓   36 22 ↑   24 44 ↓   47 30 ↑   31 36 ↓   35 13   9 22   25 13   17
01-17-22 46 ↓ 46.0 46 25 28.0 27 32 ↓   33 21 ↑   24 44 ↓   46 30 ↑   30 37   34 13   9
01-16-22 7 ↑ 39.9 35 40 ↓ 37.0 32 31 ↑ 46.0 43 46 ↓ 28.0 28 24 ↑   31 31 ↓   22 19   49 42   31
01-15-22 19 ↓ 18.1 21 11 6.1 11 39 ↓ 39.9 36 31 ↑ 37.0 33 46 ↓ 46.0 43 24 ↑ 28.0 26 32   29 20   15
01-14-22 <45 45.7 44 10 8.4 18 <25 18.1 27 9 6.1 13 >35 39.9 34 >25 37.0 31 <45 46.0 42 25 28.0 25
01-13-22 44 ↓ 49.6 42 32 ↑ 33.3 34 41 ↓ 45.7 44 11 8.4 12 18 18.1 20 10 ↑ 6.1 14 36 39.9 33 24 37.0 31
01-12-22 <45 41.5 43 >25 26.8 32 45 49.6 45 <35 33.3 34 >35 45.7 38 10 8.4 2 20 18.1 18 10 6.1 8
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 2 2 1 1 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
% Succ 33.3   50.0 33.3   33.3 20.0   20.0     40.0 50.0   25.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   33.3     33.3
Ave Error 21.1   3.1 6.8   4.4 8.7   4.4 12.6   3.0 21.4   4.6 11.6   5.6 17.3   3.7 6.6   3.6
Net Error -20.8   -1.6 -3.6   2.4 -8.7   -0.9 -3.2   1.4 -21.4   -3.7 -8.9   -1.6 -16.0   -3.7 -4.0   -2.4
Std Dev 17.5   2.4 3.8   3.0 6.2   2.1 5.8   2.2 10.7   0.8 3.8   1.8 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 01-17-22 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-17-22 25   42 35   25 25   33 45   23 30   47 >35   29 13   33 25   10
01-16-22 <35 39.9 40 45 37.0 36 25   44 <35   27 <25   32 45   23 30   48 >35   30
01-15-22 7 ↑ 18.1 19 40 ↓ 6.1 12 31 ↑ 39.9 37 46 ↓ 37.0 34 24 ↑   42 31 ↓   27 19   30 42   16
01-14-22 10 45.7 47 18 ↓ 8.4 10 9 18.1 22 36 ↓ 6.1 11 31 ↑ 39.9 33 45 ↓ 37.0 30 26   44 34   25
01-13-22 44 ↓ 49.6 50 32 ↑ 33.3 36 41 ↓ 45.7 44 11 8.4 12 18 18.1 21 10 ↑ 6.1 13 36 39.9 30 24 37.0 27
01-12-22 28 41.5 41 43 26.8 33 33 49.6 46 40 ↓ 33.3 35 7 ↑ 45.7 41 19 ↓ 8.4 7 11 18.1 19 36 6.1 8
01-11-22 13 23.5 20 40 10.9 18 >25 41.5 42 <45 26.8 33 >25 49.6 45 >35 33.3 32 10 45.7 35 20 8.4 8
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 5 1 2 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 2
% Succ     83.3 16.7   33.3     40.0     20.0 25.0   0.0     50.0     33.3     66.7
Ave Error 19.4   1.1 16.4   4.1 16.2   2.5 15.0   3.9 24.3   4.8 14.0   4.2 15.6   7.2 18.2   4.1
Net Error -19.4   -0.2 15.9   3.8 -16.2   -0.8 4.3   2.7 -24.3   -3.3 -2.7   -0.7 -15.6   -6.6 9.5   -2.8
Std Dev 12.8   0.6 10.4   2.1 6.8   0.7 9.1   0.6 7.7   1.1 3.0   1.4 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 01-17-22 at 6:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-17-22 26   26 36 ↓   33 22 ↑   23 44 ↓   47 30 ↑   29 37 ↓   34 13   8 24   24
01-16-22 32 ↑ 37.0 31 46 ↓ 39.9 42 25   26 31 ↓   31 21 ↑   22 44 ↓   47 30   30 37   33
01-15-22 7 ↑ 6.1 10 40 ↓ 18.1 36 31 ↑ 37.0 33 46 ↓ 39.9 43 24 ↑   26 31 ↓   29 19   21 42   48
01-14-22 10 8.4 13 18 ↓ 45.7 24 9 6.1 13 36 ↓ 18.1 35 31 ↑ 37.0 32 45 ↓ 39.9 45 26   25 34   28
01-13-22 33 33.3 35 45 ↓ 49.6 44 9 8.4 10 20 ↓ 45.7 23 9 6.1 13 37 ↓ 18.1 31 26 37.0 29 44 39.9 41
01-12-22 30 26.8 30 <45 41.5 45 <35 33.3 33 40 49.6 45 9 8.4 21 20 45.7 24 10 6.1 12 35 18.1 30
01-11-22 14 10.9 13 40 23.5 42 >25 26.8 31 <45 41.5 44 >25 33.3 35 >35 49.6 40 10 8.4 6 20 45.7 19
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1
% Succ 50.0   16.7     0.0 20.0   40.0     0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   0.0     33.3
Ave Error 2.4   3.6 19.7   11.6 13.9   3.4 20.2   10.0 10.7   6.6 24.8   12.3 5.5   5.4 15.6   13.2
Net Error 0.6   1.6 -4.9   2.5 -12.5   1.7 -10.6   -1.0 -9.0   4.1 -12.8   -3.3 -1.8   -1.5 -1.6   -4.6
Std Dev 1.6   1.3 12.6   7.4 8.5   1.8 6.8   7.2 2.4   0.8 9.9   3.6 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0