WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 05-02-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
05-02-25 |
71 |
|
76 |
55 |
|
57 |
69 |
|
78 |
56 |
|
60 |
67 |
|
78 |
53 |
|
56 |
62 |
|
67 |
52 |
|
55 |
05-01-25 |
62 |
68.9 |
69 |
49 |
40.8 |
52 |
69 |
|
74 |
55 |
|
58 |
68 |
|
76 |
53 |
|
58 |
66 |
|
72 |
51 |
|
53 |
04-30-25 |
73 |
75.2 |
73 |
47 |
55.0 |
47 |
63 |
68.9 |
70 |
50 |
40.8 |
54 |
68 |
|
76 |
54 |
|
57 |
65 |
|
71 |
50 |
|
48 |
04-29-25 |
69 |
67.5 |
74 |
57 |
42.3 |
57 |
75 |
75.2 |
71 |
48 |
55.0 |
46 |
62 |
68.9 |
68 |
50 |
40.8 |
53 |
67 |
|
75 |
55 |
|
57 |
04-28-25 |
71 |
76.6 |
72 |
49 |
48.9 |
50 |
68 |
67.5 |
74 |
55 |
42.3 |
56 |
73 |
75.2 |
72 |
48 |
55.0 |
49 |
62 |
68.9 |
67 |
50 |
40.8 |
50 |
04-27-25 |
59 |
62.2 |
59 |
48 |
46.2 |
46 |
70 |
76.6 |
72 |
50 |
48.9 |
48 |
69 |
67.5 |
72 |
55 |
42.3 |
55 |
72 |
75.2 |
71 |
50 |
55.0 |
47 |
04-26-25 |
64 |
60.6 |
65 |
46 |
57.0 |
48 |
60 |
62.2 |
59 |
49 |
46.2 |
47 |
68 |
76.6 |
70 |
50 |
48.9 |
49 |
65 |
67.5 |
73 |
55 |
42.3 |
56 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
20.0 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
3.8 |
|
3.5 |
7.3 |
|
7.4 |
3.1 |
|
3.9 |
6.6 |
|
7.5 |
4.8 |
|
3.8 |
7.5 |
|
7.8 |
4.2 |
|
3.9 |
9.0 |
|
10.3 |
Net Error |
-2.2 |
|
0.2 |
1.0 |
|
1.6 |
-2.9 |
|
-0.9 |
3.8 |
|
3.6 |
-4.1 |
|
-1.6 |
4.0 |
|
4.8 |
-4.2 |
|
-0.2 |
5.6 |
|
5.0 |
Std Dev |
1.9 |
|
2.0 |
4.8 |
|
5.2 |
2.1 |
|
1.7 |
3.0 |
|
3.8 |
1.1 |
|
1.5 |
0.9 |
|
2.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 05-01-25 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
05-01-25 |
63 |
|
73 |
49 |
|
53 |
69 |
|
74 |
55 |
|
58 |
68 |
|
77 |
53 |
|
57 |
66 |
|
76 |
51 |
|
56 |
04-30-25 |
73 |
75.2 |
77 |
47 |
40.8 |
47 |
63 |
|
70 |
50 |
|
53 |
68 |
|
77 |
54 |
|
58 |
65 |
|
75 |
50 |
|
51 |
04-29-25 |
69 |
67.5 |
75 |
57 |
55.0 |
57 |
75 |
75.2 |
72 |
48 |
40.8 |
47 |
62 |
|
70 |
50 |
|
53 |
67 |
|
75 |
55 |
|
58 |
04-28-25 |
72 |
76.6 |
76 |
49 |
42.3 |
51 |
68 |
67.5 |
75 |
55 |
55.0 |
56 |
73 |
75.2 |
72 |
48 |
40.8 |
48 |
62 |
|
66 |
50 |
|
51 |
04-27-25 |
60 |
62.2 |
59 |
48 |
48.9 |
47 |
70 |
76.6 |
72 |
50 |
42.3 |
50 |
69 |
67.5 |
73 |
55 |
55.0 |
57 |
72 |
75.2 |
71 |
50 |
40.8 |
52 |
04-26-25 |
64 |
60.6 |
66 |
46 |
46.2 |
49 |
60 |
62.2 |
59 |
49 |
48.9 |
47 |
68 |
76.6 |
70 |
50 |
42.3 |
50 |
65 |
67.5 |
71 |
55 |
55.0 |
55 |
04-25-25 |
67 |
72.9 |
79 |
53 |
57.0 |
54 |
63 |
60.6 |
66 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
59 |
62.2 |
58 |
48 |
48.9 |
47 |
67 |
76.6 |
69 |
49 |
42.3 |
51 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
0 |
3 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
0.0 |
60.0 |
|
60.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
3.3 |
|
4.1 |
3.3 |
|
4.1 |
2.4 |
|
4.8 |
3.0 |
|
3.7 |
3.9 |
|
4.9 |
4.0 |
|
4.7 |
5.1 |
|
5.1 |
5.3 |
|
6.6 |
Net Error |
-1.7 |
|
2.8 |
1.6 |
|
2.5 |
-1.2 |
|
0.4 |
3.0 |
|
3.0 |
-3.1 |
|
-2.1 |
3.5 |
|
3.8 |
-5.1 |
|
-2.8 |
5.3 |
|
6.6 |
Std Dev |
1.1 |
|
2.3 |
2.5 |
|
2.5 |
2.3 |
|
1.4 |
3.1 |
|
2.4 |
0.8 |
|
0.8 |
1.6 |
|
1.3 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 05-01-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
05-01-25 |
50 |
|
53 |
69 |
|
75 |
55 |
|
57 |
68 |
|
77 |
55 |
|
57 |
67 |
|
73 |
53 |
|
56 |
62 |
|
66 |
04-30-25 |
45 |
40.8 |
48 |
62 |
75.2 |
69 |
50 |
|
53 |
68 |
|
75 |
55 |
|
58 |
67 |
|
75 |
52 |
|
56 |
63 |
|
67 |
04-29-25 |
56 |
55.0 |
59 |
72 |
67.5 |
72 |
47 |
40.8 |
48 |
62 |
75.2 |
69 |
49 |
|
53 |
68 |
|
76 |
54 |
|
57 |
65 |
|
69 |
04-28-25 |
49 |
42.3 |
52 |
69 |
76.6 |
76 |
56 |
55.0 |
56 |
74 |
67.5 |
71 |
48 |
40.8 |
47 |
62 |
75.2 |
67 |
50 |
|
51 |
68 |
|
72 |
04-27-25 |
49 |
48.9 |
47 |
72 |
62.2 |
71 |
50 |
42.3 |
49 |
65 |
76.6 |
74 |
55 |
55.0 |
57 |
73 |
67.5 |
72 |
48 |
40.8 |
48 |
61 |
75.2 |
68 |
04-26-25 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
59 |
60.6 |
59 |
47 |
48.9 |
47 |
69 |
62.2 |
70 |
50 |
42.3 |
49 |
66 |
76.6 |
72 |
55 |
55.0 |
55 |
70 |
67.5 |
71 |
04-25-25 |
56 |
57.0 |
55 |
66 |
72.9 |
66 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
58 |
60.6 |
59 |
48 |
48.9 |
47 |
67 |
62.2 |
69 |
49 |
42.3 |
49 |
65 |
76.6 |
72 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
50.0 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
60.0 |
|
60.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
2.2 |
|
4.4 |
7.3 |
|
4.8 |
3.4 |
|
3.7 |
8.1 |
|
4.3 |
4.0 |
|
4.2 |
8.5 |
|
6.0 |
4.6 |
|
4.6 |
9.4 |
|
5.1 |
Net Error |
1.8 |
|
3.1 |
-2.5 |
|
-0.3 |
2.6 |
|
3.0 |
-2.8 |
|
0.2 |
3.5 |
|
3.3 |
-3.4 |
|
-0.4 |
4.6 |
|
4.6 |
-7.8 |
|
-2.8 |
Std Dev |
2.4 |
|
2.9 |
3.7 |
|
2.8 |
2.5 |
|
2.4 |
2.8 |
|
1.2 |
1.6 |
|
1.0 |
2.3 |
|
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 05-01-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
05-01-25 |
50 |
|
53 |
69 |
|
76 |
55 |
|
58 |
68 |
|
78 |
55 |
|
59 |
67 |
|
74 |
53 |
|
57 |
62 |
|
66 |
04-30-25 |
45 |
40.8 |
46 |
62 |
75.2 |
68 |
50 |
|
51 |
68 |
|
77 |
55 |
|
60 |
67 |
|
77 |
52 |
|
58 |
63 |
|
70 |
04-29-25 |
56 |
55.0 |
57 |
72 |
67.5 |
72 |
47 |
40.8 |
48 |
62 |
75.2 |
70 |
49 |
|
54 |
68 |
|
77 |
54 |
|
58 |
65 |
|
70 |
04-28-25 |
49 |
42.3 |
50 |
69 |
76.6 |
75 |
56 |
55.0 |
56 |
74 |
67.5 |
70 |
48 |
40.8 |
46 |
62 |
75.2 |
68 |
50 |
|
53 |
68 |
|
72 |
04-27-25 |
47 |
48.9 |
48 |
72 |
62.2 |
71 |
50 |
42.3 |
50 |
65 |
76.6 |
74 |
55 |
55.0 |
57 |
73 |
67.5 |
70 |
48 |
40.8 |
48 |
61 |
75.2 |
64 |
04-26-25 |
46 |
46.2 |
49 |
59 |
60.6 |
60 |
47 |
48.9 |
45 |
69 |
62.2 |
71 |
50 |
42.3 |
48 |
66 |
76.6 |
72 |
55 |
55.0 |
54 |
70 |
67.5 |
72 |
04-25-25 |
56 |
57.0 |
54 |
66 |
72.9 |
65 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
58 |
60.6 |
58 |
48 |
48.9 |
47 |
67 |
62.2 |
69 |
49 |
42.3 |
49 |
65 |
76.6 |
72 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
60.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
2.5 |
|
3.6 |
7.3 |
|
5.1 |
3.4 |
|
4.3 |
8.1 |
|
4.3 |
4.0 |
|
3.7 |
8.5 |
|
5.3 |
4.6 |
|
5.0 |
9.4 |
|
6.8 |
Net Error |
1.5 |
|
2.3 |
-2.5 |
|
-0.7 |
2.6 |
|
2.8 |
-2.8 |
|
0.2 |
3.5 |
|
2.8 |
-3.4 |
|
-0.6 |
4.6 |
|
4.3 |
-7.8 |
|
-3.8 |
Std Dev |
2.2 |
|
2.2 |
3.7 |
|
2.9 |
2.5 |
|
2.5 |
2.8 |
|
1.2 |
1.6 |
|
0.8 |
2.3 |
|
1.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|