WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 12-05-19 at 6:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
12-05-19 |
33 |
|
43 |
44 ↓ |
|
29 |
27 |
|
50 |
43 |
|
26 |
27 |
|
38 |
35 ↓ |
|
23 |
24 |
|
46 |
45 |
|
40 |
12-04-19 |
41 |
38.1 |
42 |
33 |
26.2 |
34 |
42 ↓ |
|
43 |
30 |
|
28 |
42 ↓ |
|
43 |
27 |
|
25 |
34 |
|
34 |
27 |
|
23 |
12-03-19 |
28 ↑ |
38.8 |
40 |
39 ↓ |
28.8 |
28 |
30 ↑ |
38.1 |
42 |
43 ↓ |
26.2 |
32 |
32 |
|
42 |
42 ↓ |
|
29 |
28 |
|
43 |
43 |
|
21 |
12-02-19 |
41 ↓ |
40.8 |
42 |
31 |
37.8 |
27 |
38 ↓ |
38.8 |
40 |
30 ↑ |
28.8 |
28 |
42 ↓ |
38.1 |
43 |
33 |
26.2 |
32 |
42 |
|
41 |
32 |
|
28 |
12-01-19 |
41 |
40.6 |
43 |
40 |
27.5 |
37 |
42 ↓ |
40.8 |
45 |
32 |
37.8 |
26 |
38 ↓ |
38.8 |
39 |
30 ↑ |
28.8 |
27 |
42 |
38.1 |
42 |
33 |
26.2 |
31 |
11-30-19 |
40 |
43.9 |
43 |
25 |
30.0 |
27 |
<45 |
40.6 |
45 |
>35 |
27.5 |
41 |
40 |
40.8 |
46 |
<35 |
37.8 |
29 |
>35 |
38.8 |
39 |
30 |
28.8 |
31 |
11-29-19 |
42 ↓ |
41.9 |
45 |
28 |
30.0 |
29 |
40 ↓ |
43.9 |
43 |
27 |
30.0 |
26 |
42 |
40.6 |
43 |
37 |
27.5 |
40 |
41 |
40.8 |
47 |
28 |
37.8 |
28 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
75.0 |
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
3.1 |
|
2.1 |
7.2 |
|
5.5 |
10.9 |
|
2.9 |
10.9 |
|
7.2 |
1.7 |
|
3.2 |
13.8 |
|
7.2 |
14.3 |
|
3.4 |
5.9 |
|
5.6 |
Net Error |
-1.9 |
|
1.8 |
2.6 |
|
0.3 |
-10.4 |
|
2.6 |
-3.7 |
|
0.5 |
0.9 |
|
3.2 |
-5.1 |
|
1.9 |
-11.6 |
|
3.4 |
-0.6 |
|
-0.9 |
Std Dev |
3.6 |
|
1.0 |
2.6 |
|
3.6 |
6.4 |
|
1.1 |
5.6 |
|
3.6 |
1.1 |
|
0.9 |
3.5 |
|
0.7 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 12-05-19 at 12:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
12-05-19 |
44 ↓ |
|
46 |
27 |
|
26 |
43 |
|
51 |
27 |
|
27 |
35 ↓ |
|
42 |
24 ↑ |
|
24 |
45 |
|
45 |
41 |
|
37 |
12-04-19 |
41 ↓ |
38.1 |
42 |
33 |
32.4 |
33 |
42 ↓ |
|
42 |
30 |
|
26 |
42 ↓ |
|
45 |
27 |
|
25 |
34 |
|
35 |
27 |
|
23 |
12-03-19 |
39 ↓ |
38.8 |
40 |
29 ↑ |
26.2 |
28 |
42 ↓ |
38.1 |
43 |
32 |
32.4 |
32 |
42 ↓ |
|
41 |
28 ↑ |
|
27 |
43 |
|
42 |
28 |
|
22 |
12-02-19 |
41 ↓ |
40.8 |
42 |
31 |
28.8 |
26 |
38 ↓ |
38.8 |
39 |
30 ↑ |
26.2 |
27 |
42 ↓ |
38.1 |
43 |
33 |
32.4 |
33 |
42 |
|
41 |
32 |
|
28 |
12-01-19 |
41 |
40.6 |
39 |
40 |
37.8 |
36 |
42 ↓ |
40.8 |
45 |
32 |
28.8 |
25 |
38 ↓ |
38.8 |
39 |
30 ↑ |
26.2 |
27 |
42 |
38.1 |
43 |
33 |
32.4 |
31 |
11-30-19 |
40 |
43.9 |
43 |
25 |
27.5 |
25 |
<45 |
40.6 |
43 |
>35 |
37.8 |
38 |
40 |
40.8 |
45 |
<35 |
28.8 |
28 |
>35 |
38.8 |
39 |
30 |
26.2 |
28 |
11-29-19 |
41 ↓ |
41.9 |
43 |
28 |
30.0 |
26 |
40 ↓ |
43.9 |
42 |
27 |
27.5 |
24 |
42 |
40.6 |
41 |
37 |
37.8 |
35 |
41 |
40.8 |
41 |
28 |
28.8 |
27 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
5 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
83.3 |
33.3 |
|
50.0 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
75.0 |
|
50.0 |
50.0 |
|
75.0 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
66.7 |
|
100.0 |
Ave Error |
1.4 |
|
1.7 |
2.1 |
|
2.3 |
10.1 |
|
2.7 |
9.1 |
|
1.7 |
1.7 |
|
2.4 |
8.5 |
|
1.3 |
14.3 |
|
1.8 |
1.7 |
|
1.7 |
Net Error |
-0.2 |
|
0.8 |
0.6 |
|
-1.5 |
-8.0 |
|
2.0 |
-6.3 |
|
-1.3 |
0.9 |
|
2.4 |
-6.3 |
|
-0.5 |
-11.6 |
|
1.8 |
1.2 |
|
-0.5 |
Std Dev |
1.4 |
|
1.0 |
0.7 |
|
0.8 |
6.4 |
|
1.6 |
5.3 |
|
1.2 |
1.1 |
|
1.2 |
4.0 |
|
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 12-04-19 at 6:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
12-04-19 |
<35 |
|
31 |
45 |
|
41 |
>25 |
|
27 |
<45 |
|
47 |
>25 |
|
25 |
35 |
|
37 |
25 |
|
24 |
45 |
|
49 |
12-03-19 |
26 ↑ |
26.2 |
28 |
41 |
38.8 |
44 |
33 ↑ |
|
32 |
44 ↓ |
|
44 |
28 |
|
30 |
42 ↓ |
|
45 |
26 |
|
25 |
34 |
|
38 |
12-02-19 |
29 ↑ |
28.8 |
26 |
39 ↓ |
40.8 |
38 |
30 ↑ |
26.2 |
28 |
43 ↓ |
38.8 |
43 |
32 |
|
32 |
42 ↓ |
|
40 |
28 |
|
26 |
43 |
|
43 |
12-01-19 |
40 |
37.8 |
35 |
41 ↓ |
40.6 |
48 |
30 |
28.8 |
29 |
38 ↓ |
40.8 |
40 |
30 ↑ |
26.2 |
28 |
42 ↓ |
38.8 |
43 |
33 |
|
33 |
42 |
|
38 |
11-30-19 |
41 ↓ |
27.5 |
25 |
26 |
43.9 |
43 |
41 ↓ |
37.8 |
39 |
38 ↑ |
40.6 |
47 |
40 ↓ |
28.8 |
28 |
30 |
40.8 |
41 |
38 |
26.2 |
30 |
30 |
38.8 |
40 |
11-29-19 |
25 ↑ |
30.0 |
26 |
40 ↓ |
41.9 |
42 |
27 |
27.5 |
26 |
41 ↓ |
43.9 |
43 |
36 ↑ |
37.8 |
40 |
41 ↓ |
40.6 |
45 |
28 |
28.8 |
28 |
37 |
40.8 |
39 |
11-28-19 |
30 ↑ |
30.0 |
28 |
42 ↓ |
54.9 |
45 |
28 ↑ |
30.0 |
26 |
40 ↓ |
41.9 |
42 |
27 ↑ |
27.5 |
28 |
42 ↓ |
43.9 |
43 |
37 |
37.8 |
38 |
43 |
40.6 |
43 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
60.0 |
|
80.0 |
20.0 |
|
60.0 |
50.0 |
|
75.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
3.5 |
|
2.7 |
6.2 |
|
4.4 |
2.1 |
|
1.7 |
2.9 |
|
2.5 |
4.3 |
|
1.3 |
4.1 |
|
2.4 |
4.5 |
|
1.6 |
5.0 |
|
1.8 |
Net Error |
1.8 |
|
-2.1 |
-5.3 |
|
-0.1 |
1.1 |
|
-0.5 |
-1.2 |
|
1.8 |
3.2 |
|
0.9 |
-2.3 |
|
2.0 |
3.4 |
|
1.1 |
-3.4 |
|
0.6 |
Std Dev |
4.6 |
|
0.7 |
6.1 |
|
2.7 |
1.0 |
|
0.7 |
0.6 |
|
2.1 |
0.3 |
|
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 12-04-19 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
12-04-19 |
31 ↑ |
|
32 |
45 ↓ |
|
41 |
26 ↑ |
|
25 |
42 ↓ |
|
47 |
27 ↑ |
|
25 |
35 ↓ |
|
37 |
25 |
|
24 |
46 |
|
49 |
12-03-19 |
28 |
26.2 |
28 |
41 |
38.8 |
43 |
33 ↑ |
|
34 |
44 ↓ |
|
42 |
28 |
|
29 |
42 ↓ |
|
42 |
26 |
|
20 |
34 |
|
32 |
12-02-19 |
28 ↑ |
28.8 |
27 |
39 ↓ |
40.8 |
39 |
30 ↑ |
26.2 |
28 |
43 ↓ |
38.8 |
43 |
32 |
|
33 |
42 ↓ |
|
41 |
28 |
|
26 |
43 |
|
43 |
12-01-19 |
40 ↑ |
37.8 |
37 |
41 ↓ |
40.6 |
45 |
30 |
28.8 |
27 |
38 ↓ |
40.8 |
40 |
30 ↑ |
26.2 |
27 |
42 ↓ |
38.8 |
43 |
33 |
|
33 |
42 |
|
38 |
11-30-19 |
27 |
27.5 |
25 |
41 ↓ |
43.9 |
43 |
37 ↑ |
37.8 |
39 |
42 ↓ |
40.6 |
47 |
30 ↑ |
28.8 |
28 |
39 ↓ |
40.8 |
41 |
30 |
26.2 |
30 |
42 |
38.8 |
40 |
11-29-19 |
28 |
30.0 |
28 |
40 ↓ |
41.9 |
42 |
27 |
27.5 |
26 |
41 ↓ |
43.9 |
42 |
36 ↑ |
37.8 |
39 |
41 ↓ |
40.6 |
44 |
28 |
28.8 |
28 |
37 |
40.8 |
39 |
11-28-19 |
33 |
30.0 |
31 |
42 ↓ |
54.9 |
46 |
28 ↑ |
30.0 |
27 |
40 ↓ |
41.9 |
42 |
27 ↑ |
27.5 |
28 |
42 ↓ |
43.9 |
43 |
37 |
37.8 |
39 |
43 |
40.6 |
43 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
5 |
3 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
83.3 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
80.0 |
|
80.0 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
75.0 |
|
100.0 |
75.0 |
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
1.7 |
|
1.7 |
3.7 |
|
3.4 |
1.7 |
|
1.9 |
2.6 |
|
2.7 |
1.8 |
|
0.8 |
1.8 |
|
2.2 |
1.8 |
|
1.9 |
3.1 |
|
1.8 |
Net Error |
0.6 |
|
-0.7 |
-2.8 |
|
-0.5 |
0.3 |
|
-0.7 |
-0.4 |
|
1.6 |
0.7 |
|
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
1.7 |
0.7 |
|
1.4 |
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
Std Dev |
0.7 |
|
0.5 |
1.8 |
|
1.9 |
1.1 |
|
0.3 |
0.9 |
|
2.0 |
1.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.7 |
|
1.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|