WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-27-24 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-27-24 |
63 |
|
87 |
85 |
|
68 |
65 |
|
85 |
84 |
|
70 |
66 |
|
88 |
80 |
|
73 |
70 |
|
89 |
83 |
|
73 |
07-26-24 |
64 |
82.9 |
87 |
84 |
60.6 |
66 |
66 |
|
87 |
85 |
|
69 |
68 |
|
88 |
85 |
|
71 |
69 |
|
83 |
82 |
|
70 |
07-25-24 |
71 |
84.9 |
85 |
85 |
72.1 |
66 |
65 |
82.9 |
87 |
84 |
60.6 |
66 |
67 |
|
87 |
85 |
|
69 |
68 |
|
89 |
85 |
|
70 |
07-24-24 |
80 |
82.0 |
79 |
71 |
71.1 |
72 |
82 |
84.9 |
83 |
66 |
72.1 |
66 |
83 |
82.9 |
84 |
66 |
60.6 |
67 |
84 |
|
87 |
68 |
|
69 |
07-23-24 |
70 |
81.1 |
88 |
82 |
70.9 |
72 |
71 |
82.0 |
83 |
81 |
71.1 |
74 |
73 |
84.9 |
85 |
85 |
72.1 |
69 |
69 |
82.9 |
86 |
84 |
60.6 |
70 |
07-22-24 |
70 |
81.3 |
89 |
83 |
68.9 |
70 |
70 |
81.1 |
86 |
82 |
70.9 |
72 |
71 |
82.0 |
83 |
81 |
71.1 |
73 |
71 |
84.9 |
85 |
84 |
72.1 |
71 |
07-21-24 |
68 |
84.0 |
88 |
84 |
68.0 |
71 |
69 |
81.3 |
89 |
83 |
68.9 |
71 |
71 |
81.1 |
85 |
82 |
70.9 |
73 |
71 |
82.0 |
81 |
81 |
71.1 |
72 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
25.0 |
|
75.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
66.7 |
|
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
12.2 |
|
4.3 |
12.9 |
|
2.9 |
11.0 |
|
3.9 |
12.9 |
|
3.5 |
8.3 |
|
1.5 |
9.8 |
|
3.4 |
12.9 |
|
1.4 |
15.1 |
|
3.8 |
Net Error |
-12.2 |
|
3.3 |
12.9 |
|
0.9 |
-11.0 |
|
3.2 |
10.5 |
|
1.1 |
-8.2 |
|
1.5 |
9.8 |
|
1.8 |
-12.9 |
|
0.7 |
15.1 |
|
3.1 |
Std Dev |
5.1 |
|
2.5 |
6.8 |
|
2.1 |
4.8 |
|
1.6 |
5.8 |
|
1.5 |
4.1 |
|
0.2 |
2.2 |
|
1.5 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 07-26-24 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-26-24 |
84 |
|
85 |
66 |
|
66 |
85 |
|
86 |
68 |
|
69 |
85 |
|
87 |
69 |
|
68 |
82 |
|
86 |
70 |
|
71 |
07-25-24 |
85 |
84.9 |
86 |
65 |
60.6 |
66 |
84 |
|
87 |
67 |
|
67 |
85 |
|
87 |
68 |
|
69 |
85 |
|
89 |
71 |
|
72 |
07-24-24 |
80 |
82.0 |
83 |
71 |
72.1 |
72 |
82 |
84.9 |
86 |
66 |
60.6 |
65 |
83 |
|
85 |
66 |
|
67 |
84 |
|
87 |
68 |
|
69 |
07-23-24 |
82 |
81.1 |
82 |
71 |
71.1 |
73 |
81 |
82.0 |
84 |
73 |
72.1 |
73 |
85 |
84.9 |
87 |
69 |
60.6 |
67 |
84 |
|
84 |
70 |
|
69 |
07-22-24 |
83 |
81.3 |
87 |
70 |
70.9 |
69 |
82 |
81.1 |
83 |
71 |
71.1 |
72 |
81 |
82.0 |
84 |
71 |
72.1 |
74 |
84 |
84.9 |
86 |
70 |
60.6 |
70 |
07-21-24 |
84 |
84.0 |
87 |
69 |
68.9 |
72 |
83 |
81.3 |
89 |
71 |
70.9 |
69 |
82 |
81.1 |
85 |
71 |
71.1 |
72 |
81 |
82.0 |
83 |
71 |
72.1 |
73 |
07-20-24 |
82 |
82.2 |
86 |
71 |
68.0 |
72 |
86 |
84.0 |
88 |
70 |
68.9 |
71 |
84 |
81.3 |
86 |
71 |
70.9 |
72 |
83 |
81.1 |
82 |
72 |
71.1 |
72 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
6 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
3 |
4 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
100.0 |
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
50.0 |
80.0 |
|
60.0 |
80.0 |
|
60.0 |
75.0 |
|
25.0 |
75.0 |
|
75.0 |
100.0 |
|
100.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
0.8 |
|
2.6 |
1.6 |
|
2.7 |
1.7 |
|
3.3 |
1.5 |
|
2.0 |
1.2 |
|
3.2 |
2.4 |
|
2.6 |
1.3 |
|
1.0 |
3.8 |
|
3.7 |
Net Error |
0.1 |
|
2.6 |
0.9 |
|
2.1 |
0.1 |
|
3.3 |
1.5 |
|
1.3 |
0.7 |
|
3.2 |
1.8 |
|
2.6 |
0.0 |
|
1.0 |
3.1 |
|
3.7 |
Std Dev |
0.7 |
|
1.7 |
1.5 |
|
1.6 |
0.7 |
|
1.3 |
1.9 |
|
1.3 |
0.5 |
|
0.5 |
3.0 |
|
1.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-26-24 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-26-24 |
83 |
|
66 |
61 |
|
87 |
85 |
|
69 |
63 |
|
86 |
84 |
|
71 |
69 |
|
89 |
83 |
|
72 |
70 |
|
90 |
07-25-24 |
65 |
60.6 |
66 |
84 |
84.9 |
87 |
66 |
|
67 |
85 |
|
87 |
67 |
|
70 |
85 |
|
89 |
71 |
|
71 |
84 |
|
86 |
07-24-24 |
80 |
72.1 |
73 |
71 |
82.0 |
87 |
82 |
60.6 |
65 |
66 |
84.9 |
86 |
84 |
|
67 |
67 |
|
87 |
84 |
|
69 |
68 |
|
88 |
07-23-24 |
81 |
71.1 |
72 |
71 |
81.1 |
81 |
79 |
72.1 |
73 |
73 |
82.0 |
85 |
85 |
60.6 |
68 |
67 |
84.9 |
86 |
84 |
|
69 |
67 |
|
86 |
07-22-24 |
83 |
70.9 |
70 |
71 |
81.3 |
86 |
83 |
71.1 |
72 |
71 |
81.1 |
83 |
82 |
72.1 |
73 |
73 |
82.0 |
87 |
85 |
60.6 |
70 |
69 |
84.9 |
86 |
07-21-24 |
84 |
68.9 |
70 |
70 |
84.0 |
88 |
84 |
70.9 |
70 |
70 |
81.3 |
86 |
84 |
71.1 |
71 |
72 |
81.1 |
85 |
83 |
72.1 |
72 |
72 |
82.0 |
86 |
07-20-24 |
82 |
68.0 |
71 |
68 |
82.2 |
86 |
84 |
68.9 |
70 |
69 |
84.0 |
87 |
82 |
70.9 |
70 |
73 |
81.3 |
82 |
84 |
71.1 |
72 |
71 |
81.1 |
80 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
|
|
66.7 |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
|
|
80.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
75.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
66.7 |
|
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
10.6 |
|
2.0 |
10.1 |
|
3.3 |
13.7 |
|
1.6 |
12.9 |
|
2.7 |
14.6 |
|
2.3 |
11.1 |
|
2.7 |
16.1 |
|
3.5 |
12.0 |
|
2.1 |
Net Error |
10.6 |
|
1.7 |
-10.1 |
|
3.3 |
13.7 |
|
1.3 |
-12.9 |
|
2.7 |
14.6 |
|
1.8 |
-11.1 |
|
2.7 |
16.1 |
|
3.4 |
-12.0 |
|
1.3 |
Std Dev |
3.4 |
|
1.6 |
4.1 |
|
1.7 |
4.7 |
|
1.3 |
3.4 |
|
0.8 |
4.9 |
|
2.5 |
3.4 |
|
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 07-26-24 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-26-24 |
61 |
|
65 |
85 |
|
86 |
63 |
|
68 |
84 |
|
85 |
69 |
|
70 |
83 |
|
86 |
70 |
|
71 |
83 |
|
87 |
07-25-24 |
65 |
60.6 |
66 |
84 |
84.9 |
86 |
66 |
|
66 |
85 |
|
87 |
67 |
|
68 |
85 |
|
88 |
71 |
|
70 |
84 |
|
85 |
07-24-24 |
71 |
72.1 |
73 |
82 |
82.0 |
88 |
66 |
60.6 |
66 |
84 |
84.9 |
85 |
67 |
|
68 |
84 |
|
87 |
68 |
|
69 |
84 |
|
89 |
07-23-24 |
71 |
71.1 |
70 |
79 |
81.1 |
79 |
73 |
72.1 |
72 |
85 |
82.0 |
84 |
67 |
60.6 |
66 |
84 |
84.9 |
85 |
67 |
|
68 |
84 |
|
86 |
07-22-24 |
71 |
70.9 |
72 |
83 |
81.3 |
85 |
71 |
71.1 |
74 |
82 |
81.1 |
82 |
73 |
72.1 |
72 |
85 |
82.0 |
86 |
69 |
60.6 |
72 |
84 |
84.9 |
85 |
07-21-24 |
70 |
68.9 |
71 |
84 |
84.0 |
89 |
70 |
70.9 |
70 |
84 |
81.3 |
87 |
72 |
71.1 |
72 |
83 |
81.1 |
85 |
72 |
72.1 |
72 |
83 |
82.0 |
86 |
07-20-24 |
68 |
68.0 |
73 |
84 |
82.2 |
88 |
69 |
68.9 |
71 |
82 |
84.0 |
88 |
73 |
70.9 |
70 |
84 |
81.3 |
83 |
71 |
71.1 |
73 |
84 |
81.1 |
81 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
5 |
|
3 |
5 |
|
1 |
4 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
83.3 |
|
50.0 |
83.3 |
|
16.7 |
80.0 |
|
40.0 |
60.0 |
|
60.0 |
50.0 |
|
75.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
Ave Error |
1.1 |
|
2.6 |
1.1 |
|
4.0 |
1.5 |
|
2.3 |
1.9 |
|
2.5 |
2.6 |
|
1.8 |
2.1 |
|
2.4 |
2.9 |
|
4.5 |
1.6 |
|
1.4 |
Net Error |
0.7 |
|
2.2 |
0.1 |
|
3.3 |
1.1 |
|
1.9 |
0.7 |
|
2.5 |
2.6 |
|
1.3 |
1.7 |
|
2.4 |
2.7 |
|
4.4 |
1.0 |
|
1.3 |
Std Dev |
1.5 |
|
1.6 |
0.8 |
|
1.7 |
1.9 |
|
1.7 |
0.8 |
|
1.3 |
1.9 |
|
1.8 |
0.6 |
|
1.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|