WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 01-15-21 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
01-15-21 |
46 ↓ |
|
32 |
41 ↑ |
|
45 |
48 ↓ |
|
38 |
32 |
|
45 |
42 ↓ |
|
32 |
31 |
|
42 |
40 |
|
30 |
27 |
|
40 |
01-14-21 |
45 |
28.9 |
30 |
<35 |
49.6 |
44 |
>45 |
|
30 |
40 |
|
48 |
>45 |
|
36 |
<35 |
|
43 |
<45 |
|
31 |
30 |
|
41 |
01-13-21 |
27 ↑ |
25.3 |
26 |
42 ↓ |
41.4 |
42 |
31 |
28.9 |
32 |
45 ↓ |
49.6 |
44 |
32 |
|
29 |
48 ↓ |
|
47 |
40 |
|
37 |
46 |
|
43 |
01-12-21 |
21 |
25.3 |
24 |
40 ↓ |
44.8 |
42 |
28 |
25.3 |
28 |
41 ↓ |
41.4 |
42 |
33 |
28.9 |
31 |
45 ↓ |
49.6 |
45 |
34 |
|
32 |
49 |
|
52 |
01-11-21 |
38 ↓ |
21.9 |
23 |
27 ↑ |
36.0 |
40 |
40 ↓ |
25.3 |
29 |
29 |
44.8 |
43 |
42 ↓ |
25.3 |
30 |
31 |
41.4 |
43 |
44 |
28.9 |
33 |
34 |
49.6 |
44 |
01-10-21 |
38 ↓ |
27.9 |
25 |
25 |
41.7 |
41 |
41 ↓ |
21.9 |
25 |
30 |
36.0 |
41 |
41 ↓ |
25.3 |
30 |
30 |
44.8 |
45 |
42 |
25.3 |
29 |
30 |
41.4 |
43 |
01-09-21 |
36 ↓ |
25.2 |
23 |
27 |
36.1 |
37 |
38 ↓ |
27.9 |
25 |
26 |
41.7 |
41 |
39 ↓ |
21.9 |
25 |
29 ↑ |
36.0 |
42 |
42 |
25.3 |
30 |
30 |
44.8 |
42 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
66.7 |
16.7 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
60.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
9.9 |
|
1.6 |
15.0 |
|
2.4 |
9.7 |
|
3.1 |
8.5 |
|
2.7 |
13.4 |
|
3.7 |
9.2 |
|
3.1 |
16.2 |
|
4.2 |
13.9 |
|
3.3 |
Net Error |
8.4 |
|
-0.6 |
-14.8 |
|
-0.6 |
9.7 |
|
1.9 |
-8.5 |
|
-0.5 |
13.4 |
|
3.7 |
-9.2 |
|
0.8 |
16.2 |
|
4.2 |
-13.9 |
|
-2.3 |
Std Dev |
5.4 |
|
0.7 |
16.1 |
|
1.8 |
5.1 |
|
0.3 |
5.2 |
|
1.7 |
4.7 |
|
0.8 |
2.3 |
|
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 01-15-21 at 6:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
01-15-21 |
44 |
|
46 |
41 ↑ |
|
39 |
48 ↓ |
|
48 |
32 |
|
33 |
42 ↓ |
|
42 |
31 |
|
31 |
40 |
|
40 |
27 |
|
28 |
01-14-21 |
46 ↓ |
49.6 |
43 |
32 |
28.8 |
30 |
47 ↓ |
|
46 |
39 ↑ |
|
39 |
47 ↓ |
|
42 |
29 ↑ |
|
32 |
42 |
|
41 |
30 |
|
27 |
01-13-21 |
42 ↓ |
41.4 |
41 |
31 |
28.9 |
33 |
45 ↓ |
49.6 |
44 |
32 |
28.8 |
30 |
48 ↓ |
|
49 |
40 ↑ |
|
37 |
46 |
|
42 |
30 |
|
30 |
01-12-21 |
40 ↓ |
44.8 |
41 |
28 |
25.3 |
27 |
41 ↓ |
41.4 |
42 |
33 |
28.9 |
33 |
45 ↓ |
49.6 |
42 |
34 |
28.8 |
29 |
49 |
|
46 |
37 |
|
38 |
01-11-21 |
38 ↓ |
36.0 |
39 |
27 ↑ |
25.3 |
29 |
40 ↓ |
44.8 |
43 |
29 |
25.3 |
29 |
42 ↓ |
41.4 |
42 |
31 |
28.9 |
34 |
44 |
49.6 |
46 |
34 |
28.8 |
33 |
01-10-21 |
>35 |
41.7 |
42 |
>25 |
21.9 |
26 |
40 |
36.0 |
41 |
30 |
25.3 |
29 |
<45 |
44.8 |
43 |
30 |
25.3 |
29 |
<45 |
41.4 |
44 |
<35 |
28.9 |
33 |
01-09-21 |
35 ↓ |
36.1 |
35 |
27 |
27.9 |
25 |
38 ↓ |
41.7 |
41 |
26 |
21.9 |
26 |
39 ↓ |
36.0 |
42 |
29 ↑ |
25.3 |
30 |
42 |
44.8 |
45 |
30 |
25.3 |
29 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
20.0 |
|
60.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
25.0 |
|
50.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
9.0 |
|
2.5 |
5.4 |
|
3.0 |
3.5 |
|
2.7 |
4.0 |
|
3.4 |
13.3 |
|
4.0 |
3.9 |
|
3.4 |
16.6 |
|
2.1 |
12.9 |
|
4.0 |
Net Error |
-8.1 |
|
-1.4 |
-2.2 |
|
2.0 |
-1.9 |
|
-0.5 |
4.0 |
|
3.4 |
-11.5 |
|
-0.7 |
3.9 |
|
3.4 |
-16.6 |
|
-0.3 |
-6.3 |
|
4.0 |
Std Dev |
14.4 |
|
2.2 |
7.2 |
|
1.1 |
1.6 |
|
1.7 |
0.4 |
|
1.0 |
4.3 |
|
1.8 |
0.6 |
|
1.6 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 01-15-21 at 12:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
01-15-21 |
42 ↑ |
|
47 |
48 ↓ |
|
39 |
32 |
|
48 |
43 ↓ |
|
32 |
33 |
|
41 |
42 ↓ |
|
30 |
29 |
|
41 |
40 |
|
26 |
01-14-21 |
33 |
49.6 |
50 |
47 |
28.8 |
30 |
41 ↑ |
|
45 |
48 ↓ |
|
39 |
32 |
|
44 |
42 ↓ |
|
32 |
31 |
|
42 |
40 |
|
30 |
01-13-21 |
32 ↑ |
41.4 |
42 |
47 ↓ |
28.9 |
34 |
32 |
49.6 |
44 |
48 ↓ |
28.8 |
31 |
40 ↑ |
|
48 |
46 ↓ |
|
35 |
29 |
|
43 |
42 |
|
29 |
01-12-21 |
27 ↑ |
44.8 |
44 |
41 ↓ |
25.3 |
26 |
32 ↑ |
41.4 |
42 |
47 ↓ |
28.9 |
32 |
33 ↑ |
49.6 |
43 |
49 ↓ |
28.8 |
30 |
40 |
|
46 |
46 |
|
39 |
01-11-21 |
26 ↑ |
36.0 |
38 |
39 ↓ |
25.3 |
28 |
29 |
44.8 |
41 |
42 ↓ |
25.3 |
29 |
31 ↑ |
41.4 |
43 |
45 ↓ |
28.9 |
34 |
34 |
49.6 |
45 |
49 |
28.8 |
34 |
01-10-21 |
25 |
41.7 |
40 |
>35 |
21.9 |
26 |
>25 |
36.0 |
40 |
<45 |
25.3 |
28 |
>25 |
44.8 |
42 |
<45 |
25.3 |
29 |
<35 |
41.4 |
44 |
45 |
28.9 |
31 |
01-09-21 |
25 |
36.1 |
35 |
40 ↓ |
27.9 |
25 |
25 |
41.7 |
41 |
40 ↓ |
21.9 |
25 |
30 |
36.0 |
40 |
41 ↓ |
25.3 |
29 |
30 |
44.8 |
45 |
42 |
25.3 |
28 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
6 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
|
|
100.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
13.6 |
|
1.1 |
16.6 |
|
2.8 |
19.1 |
|
2.9 |
19.5 |
|
3.0 |
19.5 |
|
3.8 |
19.3 |
|
3.4 |
23.9 |
|
2.5 |
17.7 |
|
3.3 |
Net Error |
-13.6 |
|
-0.1 |
9.3 |
|
1.8 |
-19.1 |
|
-1.1 |
9.4 |
|
3.0 |
-19.5 |
|
-0.9 |
6.7 |
|
3.4 |
-23.9 |
|
-0.6 |
17.7 |
|
3.3 |
Std Dev |
3.3 |
|
0.6 |
2.6 |
|
1.5 |
4.6 |
|
1.6 |
1.4 |
|
0.5 |
1.4 |
|
1.4 |
0.4 |
|
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 01-15-21 at 6:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
01-15-21 |
43 ↑ |
|
39 |
48 ↓ |
|
47 |
32 |
|
32 |
43 ↓ |
|
41 |
33 |
|
31 |
42 ↓ |
|
41 |
29 |
|
26 |
40 |
|
39 |
01-14-21 |
33 |
28.8 |
30 |
47 |
49.6 |
44 |
41 ↑ |
|
38 |
48 ↓ |
|
45 |
32 |
|
32 |
42 ↓ |
|
42 |
31 |
|
30 |
40 |
|
40 |
01-13-21 |
30 ↑ |
28.9 |
32 |
47 ↓ |
41.4 |
44 |
32 |
28.8 |
30 |
48 ↓ |
49.6 |
48 |
40 ↑ |
|
36 |
46 ↓ |
|
43 |
29 |
|
31 |
42 |
|
41 |
01-12-21 |
27 ↑ |
25.3 |
25 |
41 ↓ |
44.8 |
42 |
32 ↑ |
28.9 |
32 |
47 ↓ |
41.4 |
44 |
33 ↑ |
28.8 |
29 |
49 ↓ |
49.6 |
47 |
40 |
|
37 |
46 |
|
43 |
01-11-21 |
26 ↑ |
25.3 |
28 |
39 ↓ |
36.0 |
42 |
29 |
25.3 |
27 |
42 ↓ |
44.8 |
42 |
31 ↑ |
28.9 |
32 |
45 ↓ |
41.4 |
46 |
34 |
28.8 |
32 |
49 |
49.6 |
52 |
01-10-21 |
25 ↑ |
21.9 |
25 |
40 ↓ |
41.7 |
40 |
28 ↑ |
25.3 |
28 |
41 ↓ |
36.0 |
42 |
29 |
25.3 |
30 |
42 ↓ |
44.8 |
43 |
31 |
28.9 |
33 |
44 |
41.4 |
44 |
01-09-21 |
26 |
27.9 |
24 |
40 ↓ |
36.1 |
40 |
25 |
21.9 |
25 |
40 ↓ |
41.7 |
41 |
30 |
25.3 |
30 |
41 ↓ |
36.0 |
44 |
30 |
25.3 |
28 |
42 |
44.8 |
43 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
|
|
40.0 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
2.1 |
|
2.4 |
3.4 |
|
3.8 |
3.2 |
|
2.4 |
3.3 |
|
2.7 |
3.7 |
|
3.2 |
3.0 |
|
4.3 |
4.0 |
|
3.3 |
2.0 |
|
2.3 |
Net Error |
1.5 |
|
1.0 |
0.7 |
|
0.4 |
3.2 |
|
2.4 |
0.9 |
|
0.7 |
3.7 |
|
3.2 |
1.3 |
|
2.1 |
4.0 |
|
3.3 |
-0.3 |
|
1.1 |
Std Dev |
1.2 |
|
1.1 |
1.2 |
|
1.6 |
0.2 |
|
0.7 |
1.3 |
|
0.5 |
0.3 |
|
1.5 |
1.2 |
|
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|