WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-05-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-05-25 |
61 |
|
84 |
83 |
|
66 |
70 |
|
88 |
86 |
|
70 |
72 |
|
88 |
85 |
|
70 |
72 |
|
90 |
85 |
|
70 |
07-04-25 |
83 |
84.0 |
63 |
64 |
59.2 |
87 |
83 |
|
64 |
68 |
|
87 |
84 |
|
68 |
71 |
|
89 |
86 |
|
72 |
73 |
|
90 |
07-03-25 |
68 |
69.1 |
90 |
88 |
90.0 |
64 |
67 |
84.0 |
88 |
85 |
59.2 |
62 |
66 |
|
86 |
84 |
|
68 |
69 |
|
90 |
85 |
|
71 |
07-02-25 |
71 |
81.7 |
68 |
81 |
72.0 |
85 |
68 |
69.1 |
68 |
88 |
90.0 |
88 |
67 |
84.0 |
64 |
84 |
59.2 |
88 |
66 |
|
63 |
83 |
|
86 |
07-01-25 |
85 |
72.0 |
90 |
70 |
88.2 |
70 |
81 |
81.7 |
83 |
68 |
72.0 |
68 |
86 |
69.1 |
88 |
67 |
90.0 |
64 |
84 |
84.0 |
87 |
66 |
59.2 |
62 |
06-30-25 |
67 |
90.7 |
86 |
86 |
65.3 |
71 |
71 |
72.0 |
87 |
85 |
88.2 |
72 |
71 |
81.7 |
88 |
85 |
72.0 |
68 |
68 |
69.1 |
87 |
85 |
90.0 |
67 |
06-29-25 |
70 |
91.9 |
90 |
88 |
63.7 |
67 |
69 |
90.7 |
88 |
86 |
65.3 |
70 |
72 |
72.0 |
88 |
86 |
88.2 |
71 |
71 |
81.7 |
89 |
85 |
72.0 |
69 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
0.0 |
60.0 |
|
40.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
66.7 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
11.9 |
|
13.4 |
13.2 |
|
15.7 |
8.3 |
|
4.8 |
11.1 |
|
5.9 |
11.2 |
|
15.3 |
15.8 |
|
19.0 |
3.9 |
|
9.4 |
8.3 |
|
9.6 |
Net Error |
-7.6 |
|
-0.4 |
6.4 |
|
0.9 |
-8.3 |
|
3.3 |
7.5 |
|
-2.9 |
-2.7 |
|
5.3 |
3.2 |
|
-4.6 |
-3.9 |
|
9.4 |
4.9 |
|
-7.7 |
Std Dev |
7.9 |
|
5.9 |
7.0 |
|
7.8 |
6.1 |
|
2.3 |
8.4 |
|
2.4 |
2.9 |
|
2.4 |
4.5 |
|
4.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 07-05-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-05-25 |
83 |
|
84 |
70 |
|
66 |
86 |
|
88 |
72 |
|
70 |
85 |
|
88 |
72 |
|
70 |
85 |
|
90 |
71 |
|
70 |
07-04-25 |
83 |
84.0 |
87 |
64 |
59.0 |
63 |
83 |
|
87 |
68 |
|
69 |
84 |
|
91 |
71 |
|
72 |
86 |
|
93 |
73 |
|
73 |
07-03-25 |
68 |
90.0 |
93 |
88 |
59.2 |
65 |
67 |
84.0 |
88 |
85 |
59.0 |
62 |
66 |
|
85 |
84 |
|
68 |
69 |
|
88 |
85 |
|
70 |
07-02-25 |
81 |
81.7 |
84 |
68 |
69.1 |
67 |
88 |
90.0 |
89 |
67 |
59.2 |
64 |
84 |
84.0 |
88 |
66 |
59.0 |
63 |
83 |
|
85 |
69 |
|
68 |
07-01-25 |
85 |
88.2 |
88 |
70 |
72.0 |
69 |
81 |
81.7 |
80 |
68 |
69.1 |
67 |
86 |
90.0 |
87 |
67 |
59.2 |
66 |
84 |
84.0 |
86 |
66 |
59.0 |
64 |
06-30-25 |
67 |
90.7 |
92 |
86 |
72.0 |
72 |
71 |
88.2 |
87 |
85 |
72.0 |
71 |
71 |
81.7 |
87 |
85 |
69.1 |
68 |
68 |
90.0 |
86 |
85 |
59.2 |
66 |
06-29-25 |
89 |
91.9 |
91 |
69 |
65.3 |
67 |
86 |
90.7 |
89 |
72 |
72.0 |
72 |
86 |
88.2 |
91 |
71 |
72.0 |
71 |
85 |
81.7 |
88 |
69 |
69.1 |
69 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
80.0 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
25.0 |
|
0.0 |
25.0 |
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
8.9 |
|
1.8 |
9.1 |
|
2.8 |
8.3 |
|
1.9 |
9.6 |
|
2.2 |
4.2 |
|
3.8 |
7.9 |
|
3.2 |
8.4 |
|
4.1 |
11.0 |
|
4.0 |
Net Error |
-8.9 |
|
1.4 |
8.1 |
|
1.1 |
-8.3 |
|
-0.3 |
9.1 |
|
0.9 |
-4.2 |
|
2.3 |
7.4 |
|
2.2 |
-6.2 |
|
1.4 |
10.9 |
|
3.9 |
Std Dev |
9.6 |
|
1.0 |
9.5 |
|
1.8 |
5.9 |
|
1.0 |
8.3 |
|
1.2 |
2.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
|
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-04-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-04-25 |
83 |
|
64 |
64 |
|
88 |
83 |
|
70 |
70 |
|
92 |
87 |
|
73 |
71 |
|
93 |
85 |
|
73 |
72 |
|
89 |
07-03-25 |
88 |
59.2 |
64 |
67 |
90.0 |
87 |
85 |
|
61 |
66 |
|
86 |
83 |
|
68 |
69 |
|
90 |
85 |
|
71 |
71 |
|
90 |
07-02-25 |
81 |
69.1 |
68 |
66 |
81.7 |
90 |
89 |
59.2 |
65 |
67 |
90.0 |
90 |
85 |
|
63 |
66 |
|
84 |
83 |
|
68 |
69 |
|
89 |
07-01-25 |
86 |
72.0 |
67 |
71 |
88.2 |
81 |
81 |
69.1 |
68 |
69 |
81.7 |
87 |
86 |
59.2 |
66 |
66 |
90.0 |
86 |
84 |
|
62 |
65 |
|
84 |
06-30-25 |
88 |
72.0 |
70 |
71 |
90.7 |
89 |
84 |
72.0 |
69 |
71 |
88.2 |
84 |
83 |
69.1 |
68 |
68 |
81.7 |
87 |
86 |
59.2 |
66 |
67 |
90.0 |
86 |
06-29-25 |
89 |
65.3 |
68 |
67 |
91.9 |
88 |
85 |
72.0 |
71 |
71 |
90.7 |
89 |
85 |
72.0 |
71 |
71 |
88.2 |
88 |
85 |
69.1 |
68 |
68 |
81.7 |
87 |
06-28-25 |
70 |
63.7 |
70 |
87 |
82.2 |
90 |
68 |
65.3 |
68 |
86 |
91.9 |
88 |
71 |
72.0 |
73 |
86 |
90.7 |
91 |
71 |
72.0 |
72 |
86 |
88.2 |
88 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
25.0 |
|
75.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
16.8 |
|
3.7 |
17.6 |
|
5.3 |
13.9 |
|
2.7 |
15.7 |
|
3.0 |
13.7 |
|
2.5 |
14.9 |
|
2.5 |
14.6 |
|
2.6 |
13.0 |
|
3.2 |
Net Error |
16.8 |
|
1.0 |
-16.0 |
|
0.0 |
13.9 |
|
0.7 |
-15.7 |
|
-0.9 |
13.2 |
|
1.4 |
-14.9 |
|
0.3 |
13.9 |
|
1.9 |
-13.0 |
|
0.4 |
Std Dev |
6.1 |
|
1.5 |
3.9 |
|
2.3 |
7.2 |
|
1.6 |
3.6 |
|
1.8 |
6.6 |
|
2.2 |
4.6 |
|
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 07-04-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
07-04-25 |
61 |
|
57 |
83 |
|
79 |
70 |
|
63 |
87 |
|
83 |
71 |
|
67 |
85 |
|
85 |
72 |
|
69 |
84 |
|
84 |
07-03-25 |
65 |
59.2 |
63 |
85 |
90.0 |
87 |
66 |
|
64 |
83 |
|
87 |
69 |
|
68 |
85 |
|
89 |
71 |
|
72 |
86 |
|
90 |
07-02-25 |
66 |
69.1 |
66 |
89 |
81.7 |
89 |
67 |
59.2 |
65 |
85 |
90.0 |
88 |
66 |
|
63 |
83 |
|
85 |
69 |
|
68 |
85 |
|
90 |
07-01-25 |
71 |
72.0 |
68 |
81 |
88.2 |
85 |
69 |
69.1 |
68 |
86 |
81.7 |
88 |
66 |
59.2 |
64 |
84 |
90.0 |
88 |
65 |
|
63 |
82 |
|
86 |
06-30-25 |
71 |
72.0 |
70 |
84 |
90.7 |
92 |
71 |
72.0 |
69 |
83 |
88.2 |
85 |
68 |
69.1 |
68 |
86 |
81.7 |
88 |
67 |
59.2 |
67 |
84 |
90.0 |
87 |
06-29-25 |
67 |
65.3 |
66 |
85 |
91.9 |
89 |
71 |
72.0 |
73 |
85 |
90.7 |
88 |
71 |
72.0 |
71 |
85 |
88.2 |
88 |
68 |
69.1 |
67 |
85 |
81.7 |
89 |
06-28-25 |
70 |
63.7 |
69 |
87 |
82.2 |
89 |
68 |
65.3 |
66 |
86 |
91.9 |
87 |
71 |
72.0 |
71 |
86 |
90.7 |
88 |
71 |
72.0 |
72 |
86 |
88.2 |
89 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
16.7 |
60.0 |
|
60.0 |
|
|
20.0 |
75.0 |
|
75.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
3.2 |
|
3.2 |
6.3 |
|
4.1 |
2.5 |
|
2.3 |
5.2 |
|
3.8 |
2.5 |
|
2.0 |
4.6 |
|
2.8 |
3.3 |
|
3.3 |
3.8 |
|
3.7 |
Net Error |
1.5 |
|
0.1 |
-2.3 |
|
1.1 |
1.7 |
|
0.7 |
-3.5 |
|
-1.3 |
0.9 |
|
0.4 |
-2.4 |
|
0.3 |
1.9 |
|
1.9 |
-1.6 |
|
1.7 |
Std Dev |
1.7 |
|
1.2 |
0.8 |
|
1.9 |
2.7 |
|
1.7 |
0.4 |
|
1.4 |
2.2 |
|
1.4 |
0.7 |
|
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|