WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 04-28-25 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-28-25 |
71 |
|
72 |
49 |
|
50 |
68 |
|
74 |
55 |
|
56 |
73 |
|
72 |
48 |
|
49 |
62 |
|
67 |
50 |
|
50 |
04-27-25 |
59 |
62.2 |
59 |
48 |
46.2 |
46 |
70 |
|
72 |
50 |
|
48 |
69 |
|
72 |
55 |
|
55 |
72 |
|
71 |
50 |
|
47 |
04-26-25 |
64 |
60.6 |
65 |
46 |
57.0 |
48 |
60 |
62.2 |
59 |
49 |
46.2 |
47 |
68 |
|
70 |
50 |
|
49 |
65 |
|
73 |
55 |
|
56 |
04-25-25 |
67 |
72.9 |
76 |
53 |
47.3 |
54 |
63 |
60.6 |
72 |
46 |
57.0 |
49 |
59 |
62.2 |
58 |
48 |
46.2 |
47 |
67 |
|
67 |
49 |
|
50 |
04-24-25 |
65 |
72.3 |
72 |
51 |
39.9 |
52 |
68 |
72.9 |
75 |
52 |
47.3 |
55 |
64 |
60.6 |
65 |
46 |
57.0 |
49 |
61 |
62.2 |
62 |
47 |
46.2 |
48 |
04-23-25 |
71 |
72.3 |
73 |
47 |
50.2 |
49 |
64 |
72.3 |
71 |
48 |
39.9 |
51 |
66 |
72.9 |
74 |
51 |
47.3 |
53 |
65 |
60.6 |
68 |
46 |
57.0 |
46 |
04-22-25 |
73 |
70.9 |
73 |
49 |
51.4 |
47 |
66 |
72.3 |
70 |
47 |
50.2 |
49 |
62 |
72.3 |
71 |
47 |
39.9 |
51 |
65 |
72.9 |
72 |
51 |
47.3 |
53 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
33.3 |
|
66.7 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
3.9 |
|
2.3 |
5.9 |
|
5.6 |
4.8 |
|
4.1 |
6.0 |
|
5.8 |
6.0 |
|
2.8 |
5.9 |
|
6.4 |
4.5 |
|
2.8 |
5.2 |
|
6.2 |
Net Error |
-2.0 |
|
1.1 |
0.3 |
|
0.7 |
-3.9 |
|
1.3 |
0.3 |
|
2.1 |
-4.3 |
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
|
2.4 |
-1.6 |
|
2.1 |
-2.2 |
|
-1.2 |
Std Dev |
2.0 |
|
1.4 |
3.6 |
|
4.2 |
1.6 |
|
3.4 |
2.7 |
|
2.6 |
1.4 |
|
0.7 |
2.1 |
|
2.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 04-27-25 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-27-25 |
60 |
|
59 |
48 |
|
47 |
70 |
|
72 |
50 |
|
50 |
69 |
|
73 |
55 |
|
57 |
72 |
|
71 |
50 |
|
52 |
04-26-25 |
64 |
60.6 |
66 |
46 |
46.2 |
49 |
60 |
|
59 |
49 |
|
47 |
68 |
|
70 |
50 |
|
50 |
65 |
|
71 |
55 |
|
55 |
04-25-25 |
67 |
72.9 |
79 |
53 |
57.0 |
54 |
63 |
60.6 |
66 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
59 |
|
58 |
48 |
|
47 |
67 |
|
69 |
49 |
|
51 |
04-24-25 |
65 |
72.3 |
77 |
51 |
47.3 |
53 |
68 |
72.9 |
76 |
52 |
57.0 |
56 |
64 |
60.6 |
67 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
61 |
|
61 |
47 |
|
47 |
04-23-25 |
71 |
72.3 |
76 |
47 |
39.9 |
48 |
64 |
72.3 |
72 |
48 |
47.3 |
50 |
66 |
72.9 |
74 |
51 |
57.0 |
53 |
65 |
60.6 |
67 |
46 |
46.2 |
44 |
04-22-25 |
73 |
70.9 |
76 |
49 |
50.2 |
49 |
66 |
72.3 |
70 |
47 |
39.9 |
48 |
62 |
72.3 |
71 |
47 |
47.3 |
51 |
65 |
72.9 |
73 |
51 |
57.0 |
55 |
04-21-25 |
55 |
57.0 |
65 |
48 |
51.4 |
51 |
72 |
70.9 |
73 |
48 |
50.2 |
49 |
65 |
72.3 |
70 |
46 |
39.9 |
50 |
63 |
72.3 |
68 |
47 |
47.3 |
50 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
33.3 |
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
40.0 |
|
60.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
50.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
3.7 |
|
5.5 |
3.3 |
|
3.5 |
4.6 |
|
2.6 |
3.0 |
|
3.0 |
7.0 |
|
2.8 |
3.2 |
|
4.9 |
7.2 |
|
3.6 |
2.2 |
|
2.3 |
Net Error |
-1.8 |
|
5.5 |
0.3 |
|
2.0 |
-3.2 |
|
1.6 |
0.1 |
|
2.1 |
-5.3 |
|
1.0 |
-0.1 |
|
2.9 |
-4.3 |
|
0.7 |
-2.2 |
|
-0.5 |
Std Dev |
2.1 |
|
0.9 |
2.2 |
|
2.3 |
1.9 |
|
1.6 |
1.9 |
|
1.0 |
1.8 |
|
1.8 |
1.5 |
|
1.6 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 04-27-25 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-27-25 |
49 |
|
47 |
72 |
|
71 |
50 |
|
49 |
65 |
|
74 |
55 |
|
57 |
73 |
|
72 |
48 |
|
48 |
61 |
|
68 |
04-26-25 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
59 |
60.6 |
59 |
47 |
|
47 |
69 |
|
70 |
50 |
|
49 |
66 |
|
72 |
55 |
|
55 |
70 |
|
71 |
04-25-25 |
56 |
57.0 |
55 |
66 |
72.9 |
66 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
58 |
60.6 |
59 |
48 |
|
47 |
67 |
|
69 |
49 |
|
49 |
65 |
|
72 |
04-24-25 |
51 |
47.3 |
52 |
68 |
72.3 |
75 |
53 |
57.0 |
55 |
62 |
72.9 |
68 |
48 |
46.2 |
48 |
60 |
60.6 |
59 |
47 |
|
48 |
68 |
|
68 |
04-23-25 |
47 |
39.9 |
49 |
65 |
72.3 |
72 |
50 |
47.3 |
51 |
68 |
72.3 |
74 |
52 |
57.0 |
54 |
65 |
72.9 |
66 |
45 |
46.2 |
48 |
62 |
60.6 |
63 |
04-22-25 |
49 |
50.2 |
48 |
67 |
70.9 |
69 |
47 |
39.9 |
49 |
64 |
72.3 |
71 |
47 |
47.3 |
51 |
66 |
72.3 |
73 |
51 |
57.0 |
53 |
67 |
72.9 |
69 |
04-21-25 |
49 |
51.4 |
48 |
73 |
57.0 |
72 |
49 |
50.2 |
48 |
70 |
70.9 |
69 |
46 |
39.9 |
49 |
63 |
72.3 |
68 |
46 |
47.3 |
50 |
62 |
72.3 |
71 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
33.3 |
16.7 |
|
50.0 |
40.0 |
|
40.0 |
20.0 |
|
80.0 |
50.0 |
|
25.0 |
25.0 |
|
50.0 |
66.7 |
|
33.3 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
2.6 |
|
3.9 |
6.7 |
|
4.7 |
3.0 |
|
3.8 |
5.4 |
|
2.3 |
3.3 |
|
4.4 |
6.0 |
|
3.4 |
2.8 |
|
2.8 |
5.9 |
|
2.5 |
Net Error |
1.0 |
|
1.3 |
-1.3 |
|
1.2 |
0.9 |
|
2.1 |
-5.4 |
|
-1.6 |
0.7 |
|
2.9 |
-6.0 |
|
-3.0 |
-2.8 |
|
0.2 |
-4.9 |
|
-0.9 |
Std Dev |
2.3 |
|
2.5 |
2.6 |
|
2.8 |
1.3 |
|
1.2 |
2.8 |
|
1.2 |
0.8 |
|
1.3 |
2.7 |
|
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 04-27-25 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
04-27-25 |
47 |
|
48 |
72 |
|
71 |
50 |
|
50 |
65 |
|
74 |
55 |
|
57 |
73 |
|
70 |
48 |
|
48 |
61 |
|
64 |
04-26-25 |
46 |
46.2 |
49 |
59 |
60.6 |
60 |
47 |
|
45 |
69 |
|
71 |
50 |
|
48 |
66 |
|
72 |
55 |
|
54 |
70 |
|
72 |
04-25-25 |
56 |
57.0 |
54 |
66 |
72.9 |
65 |
46 |
46.2 |
48 |
58 |
60.6 |
58 |
48 |
|
47 |
67 |
|
69 |
49 |
|
49 |
65 |
|
72 |
04-24-25 |
51 |
47.3 |
53 |
68 |
72.3 |
77 |
53 |
57.0 |
53 |
62 |
72.9 |
72 |
48 |
46.2 |
48 |
60 |
60.6 |
59 |
47 |
|
47 |
68 |
|
68 |
04-23-25 |
47 |
39.9 |
44 |
65 |
72.3 |
70 |
50 |
47.3 |
51 |
68 |
72.3 |
75 |
52 |
57.0 |
55 |
65 |
72.9 |
66 |
45 |
46.2 |
49 |
62 |
60.6 |
64 |
04-22-25 |
49 |
50.2 |
47 |
67 |
70.9 |
70 |
47 |
39.9 |
48 |
64 |
72.3 |
71 |
47 |
47.3 |
51 |
66 |
72.3 |
73 |
51 |
57.0 |
53 |
67 |
72.9 |
67 |
04-21-25 |
50 |
51.4 |
50 |
73 |
57.0 |
72 |
49 |
50.2 |
48 |
70 |
70.9 |
69 |
46 |
39.9 |
48 |
63 |
72.3 |
71 |
46 |
47.3 |
51 |
62 |
72.3 |
73 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
40.0 |
|
20.0 |
20.0 |
|
60.0 |
50.0 |
|
50.0 |
25.0 |
|
75.0 |
66.7 |
|
0.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
2.4 |
|
3.4 |
6.7 |
|
5.2 |
3.0 |
|
4.0 |
5.4 |
|
1.9 |
3.3 |
|
3.9 |
6.0 |
|
2.6 |
2.8 |
|
3.5 |
5.9 |
|
3.3 |
Net Error |
1.2 |
|
0.8 |
-1.3 |
|
1.3 |
0.9 |
|
1.5 |
-5.4 |
|
-0.8 |
0.7 |
|
2.9 |
-6.0 |
|
-2.3 |
-2.8 |
|
0.8 |
-4.9 |
|
-0.6 |
Std Dev |
2.3 |
|
1.0 |
2.6 |
|
3.1 |
1.3 |
|
1.0 |
2.8 |
|
0.7 |
0.8 |
|
1.1 |
2.7 |
|
0.5 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|