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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 07-06-26 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-06-26 54   75 82   64 54   76 79   63 52   84 84   66 55   87 87   70
07-05-26 56 83.5 87 83 70.9 67 54   77 82   63 54   77 80   62 53   79 84   64
07-04-26 55 96.8 96 87 73.9 68 57 83.5 83 82 70.9 66 55   78 81   66 54   74 81   62
07-03-26 53 100.9 98 86 72.1 72 55 96.8 96 86 73.9 70 56 83.5 86 82 70.9 64 56   81 81   67
07-02-26 53 95.5 97 81 73.4 77 54 100.9 97 84 72.1 75 56 96.8 97 85 73.9 71 56 83.5 90 82 70.9 68
07-01-26 53 86.5 91 78 68.4 69 53 95.5 95 79 73.4 73 53 100.9 97 83 72.1 74 55 96.8 94 85 73.9 70
06-30-26 54 85.1 89 83 61.9 69 53 86.5 92 79 68.4 70 53 95.5 94 76 73.4 72 53 100.9 98 83 72.1 74
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 1
% Succ     33.3     33.3     60.0     40.0     50.0     50.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 37.4   2.9 12.9   3.5 38.2   2.2 10.3   2.7 39.7   2.0 8.9   3.3 39.1   4.1 11.0   2.9
Net Error -37.4   1.6 12.9   0.2 -38.2   0.0 10.3   -0.9 -39.7   -0.7 8.9   -2.3 -39.1   0.3 11.0   -1.6
Std Dev 6.7   1.2 2.6   2.1 6.7   1.3 1.2   1.1 6.1   0.2 1.1   1.8 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 07-05-26 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-05-26 83   84 54   65 82   79 54   65 80   73 53   63 84   83 56   68
07-04-26 87 96.8 100 57 70.9 70 82   84 55   65 81   75 54   62 81   72 53   59
07-03-26 86 100.9 102 55 73.9 73 86 96.8 94 56 70.9 66 82   87 56   65 81   77 54   64
07-02-26 81 95.5 100 54 72.1 76 84 100.9 97 56 73.9 74 85 96.8 93 56 70.9 70 82   87 55   68
07-01-26 78 86.5 92 53 73.4 72 79 95.5 95 53 72.1 75 83 100.9 97 55 73.9 75 85 96.8 95 56 70.9 71
06-30-26 83 85.1 92 53 68.4 69 79 86.5 92 53 73.4 72 76 95.5 96 53 72.1 75 83 100.9 98 55 73.9 75
06-29-26 84 88.2 92 55 61.9 67 82 85.1 90 54 68.4 69 78 86.5 92 54 73.4 73 78 95.5 96 55 72.1 76
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 3 0 2 0 2
% Succ     16.7     66.7     20.0     60.0     25.0     75.0     66.7     66.7
Ave Error 9.0   4.2 15.6   2.1 11.0   3.5 17.3   2.0 14.4   3.4 18.1   1.3 15.7   1.7 17.0   1.7
Net Error -9.0   4.2 -15.6   1.1 -11.0   0.6 -17.3   -0.5 -14.4   -0.4 -18.1   0.7 -15.7   -1.4 -17.0   1.7
Std Dev 4.4   1.8 2.7   1.2 3.6   1.4 1.4   1.6 1.3   0.2 1.6   0.2 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 07-05-26 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-05-26 83   65 54   76 82   61 53   75 80   61 52   83 84   66 56   85
07-04-26 87 70.9 69 56 96.8 87 82   66 55   76 82   65 54   74 80   62 52   82
07-03-26 86 73.9 73 55 100.9 94 86 70.9 69 56 96.8 85 82   63 56   78 81   61 54   80
07-02-26 81 72.1 76 53 95.5 97 85 73.9 74 55 100.9 95 86 70.9 72 56 96.8 85 82   64 55   78
07-01-26 78 73.4 71 53 86.5 95 80 72.1 75 54 95.5 97 84 73.9 75 55 100.9 95 86 70.9 72 56 96.8 90
06-30-26 83 68.4 66 53 85.1 91 79 73.4 71 53 86.5 95 77 72.1 75 53 95.5 97 82 73.9 75 55 100.9 93
06-29-26 84 61.9 65 54 88.2 90 84 68.4 70 53 85.1 94 78 73.4 72 53 86.5 97 76 72.1 76 53 95.5 98
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 0
% Succ     33.3     33.3     60.0     20.0     75.0     25.0     66.7     0.0
Ave Error 13.1   2.4 38.2   5.7 11.1   1.8 38.8   7.3 8.7   1.6 40.7   7.4 9.0   2.0 43.1   5.7
Net Error 13.1   -0.1 -38.2   0.2 11.1   0.1 -38.8   0.2 8.7   0.9 -40.7   -1.4 9.0   2.0 -43.1   -4.1
Std Dev 4.1   0.9 4.9   2.7 2.3   0.9 3.5   3.3 3.2   0.3 0.1   2.2 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0

Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 07-05-26 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-05-26 54   64 82   76 53   64 80   75 52   62 84   83 56   67 88   87
07-04-26 56 70.9 68 82 96.8 86 55   65 82   75 54   64 80   75 52   61 84   80
07-03-26 55 73.9 75 86 100.9 94 56 70.9 70 82 96.8 85 56   66 81   78 54   67 81   79
07-02-26 53 72.1 74 85 95.5 98 55 73.9 73 86 100.9 95 56 70.9 70 82 96.8 85 55   65 81   81
07-01-26 53 73.4 71 80 86.5 97 54 72.1 75 84 95.5 97 55 73.9 74 86 100.9 95 56 70.9 70 82 96.8 90
06-30-26 53 68.4 69 79 85.1 92 53 73.4 71 77 86.5 96 53 72.1 75 82 95.5 98 55 73.9 74 85 100.9 91
06-29-26 54 61.9 65 84 88.2 90 53 68.4 69 78 85.1 92 53 73.4 71 76 86.5 95 53 72.1 74 83 95.5 98
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0
% Succ     50.0     16.7     60.0     20.0     50.0     0.0     100.0     0.0
Ave Error 16.1   2.0 9.5   6.6 17.5   1.5 11.6   7.1 18.3   1.6 13.4   7.2 17.6   1.0 14.4   6.4
Net Error -16.1   0.2 -9.5   0.7 -17.5   -0.1 -11.6   0.0 -18.3   -0.1 -13.4   -1.7 -17.6   0.4 -14.4   -4.7
Std Dev 2.5   0.8 3.6   2.9 1.4   0.7 2.1   3.3 1.7   0.3 0.7   2.3 0.0   0.0 0.0   0.0