000
FXUS61 KOKX 221443
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1043 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach today and pass offshore by Friday
morning. High pressure builds to the north this weekend and
across the Canadian maritimes early next week. A frontal system
approaches by mid week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is mainly on track with minor adjustments made to
hourly forecast elements as needed.

A cold front approaches today. Ahead of this front, hot and
humid weather will continue. A prefrontal trough over the
Hudson River Valley will remain nearly stationary, before being
forced to the east this evening. Behind the trough, dewpoints
will end up lower for the second half of the day as the low
level flow comes in off the land. Elsewhere, dewpoints in the
70s will remain locked in.

No changes to the heat advisory with the heat index still
expected to be around 95 for much of the area.

The area is in a Marginal Risk for severe for this afternoon and
evening. The increasing shear late supports organized cells.
However the models depict some NVA coming through at peak
heating, so this may suppress development for most of the day.

The jet gets close enough to support activity tonight. Some of
this could be strong to severe, mainly the southern third of the
area, until the front comes through. Thereafter, showers are
possible with the jet still providing upper level divergence.

There is a moderate rip current risk today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Lingering morning showers are possible per the 00z NAM, GFS and
ECMWF. Although the upper jet will be supportive of activity
through the day, the stable airmass building in will counteract
this. As a result, clearing is expected to occur from the
northwest through the day, and temperatures will mix out to
around 80. The humidity will be much lower with the drier
airmass building in.

There is a moderate rip current risk Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models, except the NAM, are in general agreement with handling of a
SW to NE oriented trough and eventual closed low over the northeast
this weekend, as sfc high pressure builds to the north.

Dry, cooler and less humid air will be ushered in for the weekend,
with temperatures several degrees below normal. As the upper low
passes overhead by Sunday, the sfc high moves east and easterly wind
flow will moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere. With this
increase in low level moisture and upper cold pool overhead, a pop
up shower is possible on Sunday. This upper low traverses east as
next trough begins to approach from the upper mid west early next
week. This upper trough slowly lifts north in central Canada, so do
not foresee a huge rain event by mid week as sfc frontal boundary
weakens as it approaches due to lack of upper support.

As such, generally dry weather conditions are anticipated early to
mid week next week.

As mentioned, cooler than normal temperatures can be expected this
weekend, and possibly into Monday. These temperatures begin to creep
up closer to normal as the upper low passes east toward mid week
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will move through late tonight into Friday.

Mainly VFR and dry conditions expected this afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon with the
highest chances later this evening moving from NW to SE. With
these, brief MVFR to possibly IFR conditions as well as
potentially gusty winds will be possible. Not confident enough
to put in TEMPO groups yet, left as PROB30 or could very well be
vicinity for thunderstorms.

Regarding winds, SW flow of 5-10 kts for most terminals
initially will become more S with sea breeze development in the
afternoon with a slight increase in wind speed. A few gusts to
15-20 kt will be possible late afternoon into the early
evening along the coast. Winds will become more W-NW at 5-10 kt
tonight after the cold frontal passage.

.NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Uncertainty with exact timing and location of
thunderstorms. Forecast timing could be a few hours off.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Uncertainty with exact timing and location of
thunderstorms. Forecast timing could be a few hours off.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Uncertainty with exact timing and location of
thunderstorms. Forecast timing could be a few hours off.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Uncertainty with exact timing and location of
thunderstorms. Forecast timing could be a few hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: Uncertainty with exact timing and location of
thunderstorms. Forecast timing could be a few hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: Uncertainty with exact timing and location of
thunderstorms. Forecast timing could be a few hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Late tonight-Friday morning...Mainly VFR, with local
MVFR or lower possible in lingering showers, mainly along coast.
.Friday afternoon-Saturday night...VFR.
.Sunday-Monday...MVFR possible with possible showers at times.
Along coast, NE flow 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory thresholds
through Fri.

The waters will remain between high pressure to the north, and a
frontal boundary to the south. A series of low pressure centers will
ride along the front.

Easterly winds Friday night will remain below SCA criteria, then
weaken Saturday. Winds likely increase Sunday and Monday as low
pressure passes south and the pressure gradient tightens just a bit.
Seas will build to 5 ft as a result on the ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms with locally heavy downpours will pose a risk
for mainly minor urban and poor drainage flooding this afternoon
and tonight. No hydrologic impacts then expected Friday into
next week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-
     176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-104>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...IRD/JM
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion