547
FXUS61 KOKX 290622
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
222 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An approaching frontal system today will lead to tonight
into early Thursday.
2) Minor coastal flooding benchmarks may be touched across the
most vulnerable locations across the South Shore Back Bays and
coastal Fairfield County this evening and Thursday evening.
3) Cool and mainly dry conditions Friday through the weekend,
trending milder early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface ridging over the region will weaken today as a 500 mb
low and associated trough digs into the Great Lakes. The closed
low will gradually expand towards New England through Thursday
with a lead shortwave sending a cold front across the area late
tonight into Thursday morning.
A few light showers could approach western Orange County
towards sunset with dry conditions prevailing elsewhere through
the afternoon. The 00z CAMs are in good agreement with a band
of showers moving from west to east across the area this evening
into tonight. The showers may be moderate to briefly heavy at
times across NE NJ into portions of the NYC metro before
midnight, but should weaken overnight as they continue working
east across Long Island and Southern Connecticut. The showers
will quickly diminish from west to east early Thursday morning
as the front works east and mid to upper level dry air settles
over the area.
Forecast rainfall amounts have remained very similar to the
previous forecast ranging from 0.50-0.75" NYC metro on north
and west to 0.25-0.50" Long Island and Southern Connecticut. A
few localized areas could see around an inch west of the NYC
metro.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Astronomical tides are increasing the next few days in
response to the approach of a full moon on Friday. There has
also been a persistent E-ESE swell, which is likely to continue
through Thursday. Water levels may approach or just touch minor
coastal flooding benchmarks at the most vulnerable locations
across the south shore back bays and coastal Fairfield County
during high tide this evening and Thursday evening. A blend of
Stevens, ETSS, and STOFS guidance brings levels just short of
reaching minor benchmarks. There has also been a decreasing
trend with the spread on the higher end of the NYHOPs guidance
for this evenings high tide, which is leading to more confidence
water levels may fall just short of minor benchmarks. No
coastal flood statement has been issued at this time for this
evenings high tide cycle. Offshore flow may keep levels just
below benchmarks for Thursday evening, with tide levels
decreasing into Friday as swells subside.
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The aforementioned upper low will linger over eastern Canada
into northern New England, with broad troughing over the
eastern US through the weekend. This pattern will lead to cool
conditions, with a stretch of highs and lows 5 to 10 degrees
below normal. Lows early Friday morning may fall into the mid
30s across portions of the interior. Not expecting any frost at
this time due breezy conditions lingering through Friday. Winds
weaken for Friday night and Saturday night, which may lead to
higher potential of frost formation across the interior and
potentially portions of the LI Pine Barrens.
The upper trough axis may amplify along the east coast Saturday
night. A coastal low likely develops off the Carolina coast in
response, but deterministic global models and their respective
ensembles push the low far enough away from the coast to keep
conditions mainly dry Saturday night into Sunday. NBM PoPs
indicate about 15-20 percent chance for rain to graze eastern
Long Island and far southeast Connecticut.
The upper low likely persists over southeast Canada early next
week, but the flow over the northeast may become more zonal.
This should allow temperatures to moderate closer to normal,
especially away from the immediate coast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak high pressure along the coast will weaken and drift slowly
east through much of daytime Wednesday. A cold front will then
begin to approach late day Wednesday into Wednesday night.
VFR through the day Wednesday. Showers with possible MVFR cond
as the front starts to approach could arrive around 00Z
Thursday across the metro terminals and KSWF. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible between 00Z and 06Z Thursday.
Light mainly SE flow tonight should become light/variable. A light
E to NE flow may set up along the sound terminals by daybreak
Wednesday (KLGA, KBDR, KGON). A S-SE flow for most terminals
after 15Z Wednesday, speeds 10 kt or less. Winds shift toward
more of a ESE flow after 00Z Thursday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: Showers with MVFR or lower cond. Greatest chances
for IFR (along with slight chance of thunder) will run from the NYC
metros north/west from late evening into the overnight, then expand
eastward late.
Thursday: Showers with MVFR/IFR cond gradually tapering off from
west to east, ending by midday from the NYC metros north/west,
during the early afternoon at KBDR/KISP, and late at KGON. NW winds
G15-25kt in the afternoon.
Friday: VFR. WNW winds G20-25 kt.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
E-SE swells will persist on the ocean through at least
Thursday. Wave heights west of Fire Island Inlet should
largely remain below 5 ft today, so have cancelled the SCA
here. Extended the SCA east of Fire Island Inlet out 20 nm
through Thursday as wave heights around 5 ft will persist. There
may be periods where waves subside briefly below 5 ft tonight,
but they should build again due to the ongoing swell and
increasing NW flow. This SCA may eventually need to be extended
into Friday morning as seas may remain around 5 ft. An SCA may
eventually be needed west of Fire Island Inlet Thursday night as
seas may build to 5 ft under increasing NW flow. Winds should
remain below 25 kt although a few gusts could come close
Thursday night into Friday. Seas subside Friday into the weekend
with winds remaining below SCA levels.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DS
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
