000
FXUS61 KOKX 270857
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak upper level disturbances will move across
today. High pressure will then gradually build from the west
this week, with a dry cold frontal passage late day Tuesday
into Tuesday evening. Low pressure may impact the area this
coming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flurries/sprinkles possible this morning as a mid level vort
max and associated area of moisture/isentropic lift move across.
As a deep layer trough approaches this afternoon, associated low
level cyclonic flow and positive H8 theta-e advection suggest
clouds will prevail through much of the day especially inland,
and can not totally rule out additional sprinkles.

High temps today are a shade above GFS/NAM MOS and are a few
degrees above normal, with lower and mid 40s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Should see some clearing tonight and into Tuesday, except
perhaps NW of NYC where lake effect clouds may hang on in
cyclonic flow. Continued low level CAA will bring temps a little
closer to normal, with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s
expected. Another approaching northern stream upper trough will
help push a weak cold front toward/across the area from the
north during late day/early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain north of the region through the end of
the week with dry and seasonably chilly conditions. Expect
mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights with highs in the 30s
or lower 40s and overnight lows in the teens and 20s.

By next weekend, models continue to diverge on the eventual
evolution of the next trough, and thus depth of surface low
development and tracks remain unclear. However, there is the
potential for precip next weekend, with confidence in any one
solution low at this time. Will continue to carry chance POPs at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure over the Canadian maritimes will be slow to work
east over the next couple of days, while a large area of high
pressure gradually builds from the west. This will keep the area
under a W-NW flow.

VFR conditions dominate through the TAF period. West winds
10-15 kts pick up in the morning with gusts around 20 kt once
again by noon.

Late this evening scattered clouds near 2500 ft could settle in
and may go broken at times. This will have to be monitored for
updates.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday...VFR. NW winds G20kt.
.Wednesday through Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conds expected today on the ocean, as W winds 15-20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt and incoming 2-3 ft SE swell produce combined
seas of 5-6 ft. These conds should abate by nightfall W of
Fire Island Inlet, and later tonight farther east.

SUB-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through
Friday as high pressure slowly builds in. There could be some
gusty NW winds Tuesday night and Wednesday, but these should
diminish Thursday and Friday as the center of the high passes
over the waters.

The next chance of SCA conditions should be over the weekend
when low pressure may impact the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the end of the
week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Goodman
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DJ/DW
MARINE...BC/Goodman
HYDROLOGY...BC/Goodman
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion