000
FXUS61 KOKX 052051
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight, then gives
way to weak low pressure with a cold frontal passage Friday into
Friday night. High pressure shifts off the east coast as winds
shift south ahead of the next system. All day rain looks
plausible for Monday and Tuesday next week. Dry conditions
return midweek next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will briefly pass south of the forecast
area tonight. As the high builds near the region, winds will
gradually weaken with gusts diminishing by midnight. While the
center of the high will remain south of the area, its ridge axis
will extends north towards us and enter the Tri-State area
towards daybreak. As as a result, expect dry weather tonight.
Lows tonight will fall into the 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge of high pressure slides eastward early Friday morning,
giving way to a weak low pressure system and associated cold
front. This low will approach from the Great Lakes and pass
north of the region during the afternoon.

This will bring chances of precipitation mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours with the higher chances generally
over northern and eastern areas. The precipitation, may start as
a brief period of light snow, but rain should be the primary
p-type. Any potential snow accumulations would be very light if
any at all. The low and cold front move east of the area after
00z on Saturday, with drier and colder air working back into the
region. Highs on Friday will climb into the upper 30s and 40s
with Friday nights lows falling into the 20s. Sided with some of
the colder guidance for Friday afternoon for afternoon highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold and dry weekend expected as a surface high pressure system
builds into New York State beginning Saturday. This dense 1030mb
airmass advects in quite cold temperatures. Daily highs will
struggle to reach the upper 30s Saturday afternoon nearly 10 degrees
below normal. Min temps overnight fall into the mid 20s across Long
Island and into the upper teens for the Lower Hudson Valley.
Temperatures do improve Sunday as the high shifts off the east coast
by the afternoon allow south winds to bring in additional heat and
moisture for the day. Temperatures rise to the mid 40s along with
dew points in the low 40s. We`ll have to keep an eye on overnight
fog development Sunday night into Monday as Min temps will be
hovering around those dew points.

Early next week, a shortwave trough dives south through the Dakotas
deepening a low over the Great Lakes Region. As this low shifts east
over the Ohio River Valley during the day, model guidance is hinting
at south winds bringing scattered showers for the forecast area
Monday morning becoming more widespread into the afternoon ahead of
the system. There`s some discrepancy in whether these are warm
advection showers or typical offshore storms. Regardless,
precipitable water values increase to around 1.00-1.15 inches well
above the daily sounding climatology. Rain within this moist airmass
could cause widespread nuisance flooding with isolated areas seeing
1-2 inches of rain through Monday evening. On Tuesday aided by a
140+ kt jet streak over the Lower Mississippi Valley the
aforementioned low continues northeast into Quebec Province. Locally
rain continues to fall as south winds shift southwest. Could see an
additional 1-2 inches of rain Tuesday with increased rain rates as
global models indicate a slow moving line of showers works its way
west to east ahead of the cold front. Mild temperatures in the mid
50s will be possible both Monday and Tuesday despite the rain. West
winds associated with the cold front push through midnight into
Wednesday morning making drier and cooler conditions are likely
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions as high pressure builds from the southwest. The winds
gradually diminish tonight. Winds early this evening will gust at 20
to 25 kts for the city terminals. Gusts should abate for the city
terminals towards 5-6z and most of the outlying terminals towards
3z.

Ceilings are expected to lower below 10kft during Friday morning
ahead of an approaching cold front, but VFR conditions will continue
to prevail through the morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Afternoon...Chance of MVFR conds mainly N and NE of the NYC
metros, with a brief rain and/or snow shower possible.
Otherwise mainly VFR. SW to S winds G20kt.
Friday night...VFR with NW winds G20kt.
.Saturday...VFR. NW winds G20kt in the morning.
.Sunday...VFR.
.Sunday night and Monday...Rain showers likely with MVFR conds.
.Tuesday...Sub VFR likely in rain, with conditions improving at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions continue for all waters with a gusty WNW
wind. Expect some occasional gusts to gale force early this
evening. Winds subside tonight with advisory level conditions
gradually diminishing, but ending the latest over the ocean and
easternmost non-ocean waters. A relatively tranquil period
follows for Friday morning, but SCA conds could enter the ocean
waters by day`s end and become more likely at night. There could
even be some gusts to 25 kt over the eastern Sound and Bays late
Friday night.

Winds will remain below small craft levels over the weekend. South
winds increase to 23-28 mph nearing SCA conditions Monday
morning through the afternoon. Seas increase 6-9 feet by the
afternoon associated with a complex system over the marine zones
beginning early next week. As the system leaves the area early
Wednesday winds shift westerly but maintain strength through
mid week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant liquid equivalent is forecast through Sunday. A
significant long duration rainfall event is possible beginning
Monday through Tuesday night.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.

The KOKX WSR-88D radar will be out of service until
approximately 12/7 due to the refurbishment of the transmitter.
This work is part of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DJ/16
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DJ/16
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/DJ/16
HYDROLOGY...BC/DJ/16
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion