936
FXUS61 KOKX 222239
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
639 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure tracks to east of New England tonight. High
pressure briefly returns Tuesday ahead of a cold front passage
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure
builds across the area behind a cold front Wednesday into
Thursday. A warm front will lift north Thursday night as a low
pressure tracks approaches from the Ohio Valley dragging a cold
front across the area Friday. High pressure will build in from
the Great Lakes to start the weekend. Another frontal system may
impact the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Minor adjustments made with this update to account for slightly
cooler temperatures than previously forecast. Have updated based
on latest observations and trends.

In addition, the moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of
the area, and any shower should remain light through the
remainder of the evening.

Light showers are expected to continue across mainly Long Island
and Connecticut after 00z, but there will be a diminishing trend
as the occluded low shifts slowly to the east. Clouds gradually
clear across the west, but should remain mostly cloudy out east
closer to the low. However, dry conditions are forecast after
06z. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging briefly builds over the Tri-State as low pressure
departs towards the Canadian Maritimes. Lingering clouds across
eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut into the early
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny conditions are forecast with
temperatures reaching the lower and middle 70s from the city
north and west. Further east, temperatures will generally be in
the 60s although if clouds persist longer those readings could
held down especially across the Forks and southeast Connecticut.

The ridge quickly moves to the east in the evening ahead of the
next shortwave trough. This trough will send a cold front
towards the region Tuesday night. Moisture is lacking with this
system, but a chance of showers exists as the front and
shortwave make their way across the region. The front should be
moving offshore by day break Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind the front for Wednesday and Wednesday
night, ushering in drier air and cooler temperatures. High
temperatures will be in the low 60s inland and along the coast and
mid to upper 60s across the tri state area. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will be mainly in the 40s. Weak high pressure
continues to build into Thursday with dry weather expected.

Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary over North Carolina and
Virginia will lift northward as a warm front Thursday night.
Precipitation will spread across the region Thursday night into
Friday. Conditions quickly dry out Friday night as the front pushes
offshore and high pressure builds across the area through the
weekend.  Temperatures over the weekend will be near normal for this
time of year.

Another frontal system is expected to approach early next week,
bringing yet another round of rain to the area with temperatures
remaining near seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure to the southeast will continue to move away from the
are through tonight. A second area of low pressure approaches from
the west during the day on Tuesday.

Showers will continue across the terminals this afternoon before
tapering off from west to east this evening. The most persistent
shower activity is expected to come to an end between 23-00Z at the
city terminals and between 03-05Z across the Connecticut and Long
Island terminals. While the city terminals continue to remain
mostly VFR, the showers are resulting in at least periods of MVFR
ceilings and visibilities. The most widespread MVFR conditions are
expected to remain east of the city, with the potential for
conditions to even fall to IFR for a time this evening and into the
overnight at KGON.

Northerly winds around 10 kt will slowly back to the NW into this
evening, with speeds falling to 5-10 kt overnight. Winds then shift
to the southwest late Tuesday morning.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changes in ceilings and
visibilities in showers into this evening. Best chance for showers
is through 23Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changes in ceilings and
visibilities in showers into this evening. Best chance for showers
is through 23Z.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changes in ceilings and
visibilities in showers into this evening. Best chance for showers
is through 23Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changes in ceilings and
visibilities in showers into this evening. Best chance for showers
is through 23Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changes in ceilings and
visibilities in showers into this evening. Best chance for showers
is through 00Z.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changes in ceilings
and visibilities in showers through this evening. Best chance
for showers is through 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR Tuesday night.
.Wednesday...Becoming VFR.
.Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night-Friday night...Chance of showers and MVFR
conditions.
.Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough seas continue on the ocean waters through tonight. 5-6 ft
seas may linger east of Fire Island inlet into Tuesday
afternoon, so have extended the SCA through this time.
Winds on the ocean waters could reach 20 kt this evening, but
otherwise a weak pressure gradient will keep winds below SCA
levels.

Seas on Wednesday will start out above SCA levels then slowly
subside by Wednesday afternoon as high pressure begins to builds
across the area waters. Seas will remain below SCA levels through
much of the weekend. Then slowly rise back to SCA by Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
One quarter to one half inch of rain is possible through this
evening, mainly east of the Hudson River corridor. Minor urban
flooding is possible, but no significant hydrologic impacts are
expected.

There is the potential for a half inch to an inch of rainfall
thursday night into Friday with no hydrologic impacts anticipate at
this time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/DS
NEAR TERM...CB/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...Fig/DS
HYDROLOGY...Fig/DS
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion