566
FXUS61 KOKX 191958
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will extend southwest from New England through
Monday night and weaken on Tuesday. Low pressure moving
northeast across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec
will send a warm front toward the area Tuesday night, followed
by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. High pressure will then
settle over the area for late this week, and start to weaken
Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure centered well to our northeast extends into the
region. This will keep most of the area dry tonight, however there
will still be some lower level moisture and weak lift. This will be
enough to warrant low chances of light rain or drizzle, mainly for
eastern and coastal areas. Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s in
most areas.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The position and strength of high pressure doesn`t change much
during this period. Enough lower level moisture remains for partly
to mostly cloudy conditions, but since mid-levels will be drier
there`s a better chance for more spots across the tri-state area to
see breaks of sunshine. Low chances for rainfall once again.
This will be mainly during the day and across the coastal
areas. Any rain will will light or in the form of drizzle due to
the dry mid-levels and weak lift. Highs in the 70s and lows in
the 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the sfc ridge axis to the north and an approaching mid level
trough, there should be enough low level moisture to make Tue a
mostly cloudy day, with isolated/scattered showers. Shower coverage
should increase going into Tue night as the warm front approaches,
with a few heavier showers and tstms possible late Tue night. This
should be quickly followed by cold frontal passage on Wed at least
for NYC metro and points west, but the front could progress slowly
enough to allow for instability to build over eastern CT/Long Island
and spark another round of showers/tstms mainly in the late morning
and early afternoon.

At any rate, expect conditions to dry out Wed night, with a stretch
of seasonably warm and comfortably humid days coming up for Thu-Sat,
with afternoon dewpoints in the 50s, and possibly even dipping into
the 40s in spots on Thu.

The high begins to weaken going into Sat night/Sunday, and some
showers may be possible during that time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stationary across the Mid
Atlantic states today into Monday, while high pressure noses in
from the north.

MVFR cigs will continue through the afternoon, but indications
that VFR cigs across northern terminals will work into NYC/NJ
metro terminals for evening push as drier air works down from
the north. Conditions then likely fall back down to MVFR late
tonight and for Mon morning push.

Light shra and drizzle activity will be most prevalent along
NYC/NJ metro terminals through this afternoon, with activity
diminishing this evening.

Gusty E/ENE flow across NYC and coastal terminals will subside
a bit for evening push, but still maintain around 10 kt. Winds
may briefly back to the N/NNE overnight and weaken, before
strengthening to 8 to 12 kt from NE Mon morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Mon Aft-Tue...Improvement to VFR on Monday afternoon,
remaining VFR through Tuesday.
.Tue Night-Wed...Shower/tstm likely with MVFR conditions.
.Thu-Fri...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters through Monday afternoon.
There`s a chance that advisory conditions aren`t being met Monday
morning, but with winds veering E at around 15 kt in the afternoon,
thinking is that if seas fall below 5 ft in the morning, they could
rise back to 5 ft. Additionally, gusts will be close to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Therefore, did not want to shorten the SCA, but extended
it through the afternoon instead. It might even need to be extended
into the evening, but didn`t have enough confidence to extend it
into another forecast period.

Ocean seas will likely build to SCA levels late Tue night into Wed
as SW flow increases to around 20 kt. These elevated seas may linger
out east into Wed night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tue.

Showers/tstms, some with heavy rain, may be possible Tue night into
Wed morning with a passing frontal system. With PW increasing to
well over 2 inches, and deep layer SW flow indicative of potential
training of cells, there is at least potential for urban and poor
drainage flooding issues overnight from NYC north/west, which may
linger into the Wed AM rush. Flash flood potential is not out of the
question with low FFG values especially over NE NJ, but does not
look widespread.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/Goodman
HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion