989
FXUS61 KOKX 131133
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The next potential window for strong to severe thunderstorms
will be Sunday late afternoon and evening.
2) Minor coastal flooding chances during the evening/nighttime
high tide cycles this weekend and into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
For Sunday, a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes region
will extend a pair of shortwave troughs toward the East Coast.
The first shortwave will support the development of a low
pressure system along the coast, which will give the area its
next round of shower and storm activity. The second shortwave
will support a surface cold front on Sunday night that will end
the storm threat. The environment ahead of these features will
be more marginal than the last several days as temperatures will
only just get to 90 degrees and surface dew points will only
reach the mid 60s, so the instability will be limited. However,
this setup could allow for more upper level support to organize
storms. SPC has the western portion of the area in a slight risk
and the eastern half in a marginal risk of severe storms, with
the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another round of high tide flooding is expected across coastal
Fairfield CT and the south shore back bays of Nassau NY this
evening. The combination of a new moon plus surge/anomaly near
a foot will once again produce water levels at or just above
minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening/nighttime
high tide cycle.
With an increasing onshore flow Sunday and tide levels coming
up another tenth or two, a more widespread minor coastal flood
event is possible Sunday night and coastal flood advisories may
be needed.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west this morning. A thermal
trough sets up across the area this afternoon.
VFR.
NW winds around 10kt will gradually back to the SW-S at coastal
sites into the afternoon. A few gusts 15-18 kt possible.
Seabreeze forecast at KJFK. Light SW winds tonight.
There is some uncertainty due to mixing and the development of
a thermal trough in the afternoon on how quickly winds back
around at the coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts up to 15-18 kt possible in the afternoon.
Timing of winds backing to the SW-S at KJFK could vary by 1-3
hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
late afternoon and evening with MVFR or lower possible at times.
S-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in
showers and thunderstorm.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light flow from the NW less than 15 kts is expected
through tonight with sub-SCA conditions expected for all waters.
There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday
into Sunday night with increasing southerly flow ahead of a
cold front. This will likely be marginal and mainly for the
ocean waters, with 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft seas.
Any near SCA conditions fall below criteria on Sunday night and
sub-SCA conditions persist through at least the middle of the
week.
Rip Currents...
The rip current risk overall will be low today with a west to
northwest wind generally up to 10 kt and a lingering 2 ft
southerly swell. By Sunday, the rip current risk climbs to
moderate for the Suffolk beaches, with a high risk developing
during the afternoon for the NYC and Nassau beaches, mainly due
to an increasing S wind up to around 15 kt. A high risk may
develop very late in the day for the Suffolk beaches as well.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MW
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
