000
FXUS61 KOKX 271122
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches today and moves across the area
this evening. A second cold front move across the area early
Monday, followed by high pressure building in later in the day
Monday. The high remains in control through Tuesday night. The
next frontal system impacts the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night before high pressure returns for the end of next week.
Another frontal system may approach next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Other than a few minor adjustments made to reflect current
observations, the forecast remains on track. The morning
starts off dry as high pressure continues to slide east. Low
pressure and its associated frontal boundary approach from the
west. Rain will start to overspread the region starting around
15z and will continue through the day. The rain starts off
light, but will pick up in intensity during the afternoon, with
periods of moderate rainfall expected. Can not rule out some
heavier downpours either as PWATS approach 1.4 to 1.5 inches
between 18z and 00z. In addition, forecast soundings continue to
show a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE around the same time and
thunder can not be completely ruled out. However, due to low
confidence in occurrence will continue to keep out of the
forecast. This system is progressive and moves out of the area
fairly quickly, with most of the precipitation ending between
03-06z. Rainfall totals will average between 0.75 - 1.00 inches.

The area dries out completely by 06z and clearing skies from west to
east.

Highs today will be above average with a warm southerly flow.
Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s are expected across Long
Island and the NYC metro area. Low to mid 50s elsewhere. Lows
tonight will fall into the 40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As low pressure departs New England on Monday, and high pressure
builds to our west, the region will remain under a fairly tight
pressure gradient. Expect a gusty NW flow with gusts 20-25 mph. Can
not rule out a few higher gusts, especially earlier in the morning
and closer to the coast. The gradient finally starts to relax
towards evening as the high starts to build overhead. This high will
remain over the region on Tuesday, with dry conditions expected
through the entire short term period.

Highs on Monday will be int he lower and middle 50s, while highs on
Tuesday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the middle and upper
40s to near 50. Clear skies and light winds Monday night will result
in good radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the middle 20s to
lower 30s for most of the area. The only exception will be NYC where
lows will be in the middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term. Only change was to bump up
winds a tad Wednesday night into Thursday with the next system.
Otherwise, The global deterministic models and ensemble means
continue to be in good agreement on the overall pattern evolution
through the end of next week.

Attention turns to an amplifying upper trough over the Plains
Tuesday night. Ridging over the eastern seaboard shifts offshore
through Wednesday as the trough continues to amplify and approach
the eastern states. Deepening low pressure lifts over the Great
Lakes and into southeast Canada on Wednesday, dragging a strong cold
front towards the region through the day.

There is general agreement on most of the showers with the
system occurring Wednesday afternoon and evening. The associated
warm front lifts north initially, supporting the showers in the
afternoon. The main cold front quickly follows in the evening
with potential of a more organized line of showers. Have
increased PoPs, but still a bit lower than the NBM. The system
does bring potential for a period of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall. However, the NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch
of rain in any six hour period Wednesday afternoon and evening
are still less than 5 percent. The system is progressive which
should help limit the duration of any moderate to locally heavy
rain.

The next concern late Wednesday into Wednesday night is strong,
gusty winds. Southerly flow ahead of the system likely increases
winds through the day, but the stronger winds may hold off until
Wednesday night immediately ahead of the front and then again
behind the frontal passage. The pressure gradient behind the
front is quite steep owing to a large pressure difference
between the primary low over southeast Canada and sprawling high
pressure over the central states. The modeling differs on the
intensity of the primary low, which will impact the pressure
gradient and boundary layer winds. Despite these differences,
there is potential for gusts 35-40 mph Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning. Gusty winds continue into Thursday as
the low departs and high builds towards the region. Warm
advection ahead of the cold front Wednesday could push
temperatures into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Temperatures
then fall back to slightly below normal levels on Thursday in
the 40s.

High pressure should remain in control to end next week with
near to slightly below normal temperatures. Another frontal
system may approach next weekend, but it is much too early for
any confidence in its strength and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal system approaches from the south and west this afternoon
and will move across this evening. Another cold front moves in for
early Monday.

Lowering and thickening clouds will eventually lead to the
development of rain that will become probable late this morning with
rain expected for the afternoon into evening hours. VFR initially
going into this morning will eventually transition to MVFR this
afternoon and down to IFR at times late this afternoon into this
evening. Rain could be occasionally heavy.

Rain will begin to taper off late this evening into overnight from
west to east. Conditions forecast to improve to MVFR and eventually
VFR late tonight.

Winds mostly SW near 5-10 kt increase to 10-15 kt this afternoon and
become more southerly. Winds switch to more SW flow tonight with
sustained speeds of near 15-17 kt along the coast, closer to 10 kt
inland and become quite gusty. Gusts are forecast up to near 20 kt,
with gusts around 25-30 kt along the coast. Winds become W overnight
and decrease to near 8-12 kt with gusts closer to 20 kt.

There will be a low level jet moving in this evening as well with SW
flow of 45-50 kt at 2kft for the coastal terminals.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine timing of rain and categorical changes
between MVFR and IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Late Sunday night...Conditions improve to VFR. W wind gusts near 20
kt.
.Monday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt during day.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...MVFR or lower at times in showers. S winds G20-25 kt in
the afternoon, shifting to the SW at night with G25-30 kt at night.
.Thursday...VFR. W winds G25-30kt gradually diminish during the
afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will gradually build back to SCA conditions on all the
area waters today as an frontal system approaches the waters.

Winds peak this evening and have converted the gale watch to a gale
warning for the Ocean zones. The gale will run from 21z through 11z,
however it is likely that the gales will end prior to 11z, and the
headline can be converted back to an SCA earlier. For the non ocean
waters, an SCA is in effect from 20z through tonight. A few
occasional gusts to gale force can not be ruled out, especially on
the south shore bays and the far eastern waters. Peak winds across
the ocean will gust up to 34-37 kt and across non ocean waters up to
25-30 kt. Waves on the ocean will reach 8-10 ft tonight.

Gusty NW winds and SCA conditions continue on Monday on all waters.
Winds and seas subside Monday night below SCA levels with the
exception of lingering seas near 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet. Sub-
SCA conditions are then likely on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
strengthening S flow is likely on Wednesday ahead of a cold front,
which will bring a return to SCA conditions, especially in the
afternoon and evening. It is also starting to look more likely that
gales develop once again Wednesday night with the frontal passage
and then post-frontal. SCA conditions are likely to continue on
Thursday as high pressure builds towards the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There will be periods of moderate rainfall this afternoon
through the evening, but no hydrologic impacts anticipated.
Total rainfall amounts will be between 0.75 and 1.0 inches.

No hydrologic impacts expected with showers accompanying a strong
frontal system late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
While tides are still running high from the recent new moon,
forecast surge values have come down from previous forecast. Total
water level forecasts now are expected to fall short of minor
coastal flood benchmarks at all tidal gauges with high tide this
morning. A few tidal gauges along the South Shore Bays such as East
Rockaway and Reynolds Channel could get close to minor coastal flood
benchmarks during their high tides this morning but are forecast to
stay 0.1 to 0.2 ft below the minor benchmarks. No coastal flood
statements are planned at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion