812
FXUS61 KOKX 301953
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will move through this afternoon into tonight.
The associated area of low pressure will continue to deepen as
it lifts up into New England and eastern Canada Friday into
Saturday. High pressure building from the west on Sunday will
settle offshore by late Monday. A cold front will pass across
Monday night into Tuesday before high pressure returns on
Wednesday. Another cold front is possible late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cold front entering the area with narrow band of very heavy
rain and isolated lightning strikes, with precip rates close to
an inch per hour. E-SE winds ahead of the band have been
gusting to 45-50 mph in spots along the immediate coastline
around the NYC metro and western Long Island Sound as as a
50-kt LLJ passes overhead. These winds likely spread E into this
evening, then weaken after the convective line passes through.
Winds then pick up out of the W after midnight tonight.
Rain quickly ends SW-NE tonight as the front passes E and the
associated sfc low exits into upstate NY and New England. The
region averages a widespread 1.5-2.5 inches by this time, with
some locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches possible .
Temperatures will fall to near 50 in NYC and into the 40s
elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Wind pick up again on Friday from the west as the low deepens
while moving out of New England into ern Canada. Strongest winds
most likely to occur in/around NYC Fri afternoon/evening, with
some sustained values close to 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph, and
lower values inland but still gusting up to 35-40 mph. Issued a
wind advisory for the entire CWA from 12 noon until midnight,
including impact on Halloween in areas to the north/west where
winds will likely be weaker.
On Saturday, there will still be a fairly strong pressure
gradient between the departing strong low and building high
pressure from the west. Gusts 25-30 mph appear likely, with the
higher values closer to the NYC metro area and the coast. The
gradient begins relaxing late in the afternoon allowing winds to
diminish, with any lingering gusts ending ending after sunset.
High temps will be in the 50s both Fri/Sat. Low temps Fri night
will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, then a little cooler
Sat night, 35-40 inland with some frost, and 40-45 for the NYC
metro area and the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* Dry and seasonably cool to end the upcoming weekend.
* Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next
week. A cold front passage may bring a few showers Monday
night.
* Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels Sunday
through the middle of next week.
High pressure aloft and the surface will bring dry and
seasonably cool conditions for the second half of the weekend.
Winds will much weaker compared to Saturday due to a relaxed
pressure gradient. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. Mostly
clear conditions, dry air, and weak winds will lead to a chilly
Sunday night with lows falling into the mid 30s inland and
upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere. Some moderation in the airmass
is likely on Monday as high pressure begins moving offshore.
Highs may rise slightly above normal into the upper 50s to low
60s.
For Monday night, the modeling continues to differ on the
handling of the interaction of a dampening southern stream
shortwave with an approaching northern stream shortwave. Most of
the guidance continues to keep the waves far enough apart that
any low pressure associated with the southern stream passes well
south and east of the area. A cold front associated with the
northern stream will quickly sweep across the area. The model
consensus has consistently indicated a low chance PoP during
this timeframe, which seems reasonable given the aforementioned
pattern.
The cold front pushes well offshore Tuesday morning with high
pressure ridging returning into Wednesday. Seasonably cool
conditions are expected to continue through mid week. Another
fast moving cold front is possible on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal system continues to move across the area this
afternoon and evening, then lift north of the region tonight
into Friday.
Conditions at most of the terminals are either MVFR or IFR with
some conditions below IFR. There is a band of heavy rain moving
across the NYC terminals, this line is oriented north to south
and slowly shifting eastward. Behind this line, expect the wind
gusts to diminish a bit and possibly come to an end. Also, any
LLWS should come to an end. Expect conditions to improve back
to MVFR behind this line as well. It may take a few more hours
for this like to reach the far eastern terminals. We should see
drier conditions start to filter into the area behind the line.
Winds 25kt with gusts 35-40 kt, will gradually diminish behind a
line of heavy rain showers. This like has already moved across
KEWR and KTEB where gusts have temporarily come to an ended.
The line is over KJFK and KLGA, and would expect gusts to end
there over the next hour or two. Further east, expect winds to
continue to diminish this evening with gusts becoming more
occasional or briefly ending for a period. Winds become SW to W
tonight with gusts 25-30kt. Timing of the diminishing and
shifting winds is uncertain and depends on the timing and track
of low pressure over the terminals. Winds increase further on
Friday mid to late morning into the evening with gusts between
30-40kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments for timing and changing flight categories through this
evening.
Gusts may be occasional at times this evening and early
tonight before increasing once again late tonight and on Friday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon: VFR. W winds 15-25kt, G30-40kt, highest along
the coast.
Saturday: VFR. W winds G20-30kt.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR early. Chance of MVFR late. Showers possible late in
the day into Monday night.
Tuesday: MVFR early, then improvement back to VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
E-SE gales were occurring on the ocean, NY Harbor, the Great
South Bay, and the wrn/central Sound ahead of a cold front and
narrow convective line. These winds should spread eastward ahead
of this feature. After the frontal passage winds lull for a
period tonight before picking up out of the W late tonight.
Gales should return to all waters by Sat afternoon and continue
into tonight, and for simplicity`s sake replaced any gale
watches with gale warnings, and extended those warnings in time
to run through Fri night on all waters despite the lull, and
into early Sat morning on the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Instantaneous rainfall rates with a narrow convective line
moving through attm have come close to an inch in only 10
minutes in parts of NYC, with storm totals over 2 inches,
causing flash flooding in spots. Widespread rainfall of
1.5-2.5 inches expected through tonight, with widespread
nuisance flooding likely. Local amts as high as 3-4 inches, and
rates up to an inch in less than an hour, will also present a
localized flash flood risk mainly from western CT/Long Island
north/west.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
An increasing onshore flow through today will increase surge and
bring minor coastal flooding with this afternoon and evening
high tide cycles. The most vulnerable locations across the Lower
NY Harbor, south shore back bays, western Great South Bay, and
western Sound (southern Fairfield, and Southern Westchester) are
expected to exceed minor flooding benchmarks. There is also a
chance that a few of the most vulnerable locations (Freeport and
Lindenhurst) could just touch moderate benchmarks. A coastal
flood advisory has been issued for these locations.
At coastal Bronx, and the north and south forks of Long Island
may just touch minor flooding benchmarks, and a coastal flood
statement remains in effect for these areas.
Winds will shift to the W-WSW tonight allowing water levels to
begin subsiding into Friday morning. Despite the wind shift,
water levels may not subside enough to prevent minor coastal
flood benchmarks from being met along the Great South Bay before
the Friday morning high tide. Additional statements or an
advisory may needed, but confidence is not high enough at this
time.
Breaking waves of 5-7 ft along the oceanfront will result in
beach erosion flooding around the times of high tide, with minor
damage possible to dune structures.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EDT Friday night
for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009.
NY...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EDT Friday night
for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072-
074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080.
NJ...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EDT Friday night
for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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