527
FXUS61 KOKX 132340
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control into Wednesday. A weak low to
the south may graze the area Wednesday night into Thursday
night, followed by weak high pressure Friday and into the
beginning of next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak upper trough moves through the region by early this
evening, with little moisture and weak lift. With surface high
pressure dominating and low levels remaining rather dry as per
Bufkit soundings, will maintain slight chance probabilities
mainly across the interior. Perhaps areas see only a few
sprinkles.
The upper trough moves through the region tonight and into
Sunday morning, with weak surface high pressure remaining in
control. Winds will be light with mostly clear conditions.
Radiational cooling will allow for the outlying areas to fall
into the mid 50s, and with dew points also in the mid 50s patchy
fog will be possible late overnight and into early Sunday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front does approach the region for Sunday, and looks
to dissipate as the upper trough axis moves east of the region
and surface high pressure dominates. Kept with the slight
chances Sunday afternoon, however, with little instability
removed the mention of thunder. Again, low levels remain dry,
and any showers will be light, or maybe be just a few sprinkles.
High pressure then returns Sunday night into Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures are forecast
through Wednesday afternoon.
* A weak low to the south may graze the area Wednesday night into
Thursday night.
* Dry and warmer conditions Friday, with dry conditions into the
beginning of next weekend.
Ridging will continue to build over much of the eastern CONUS
Tuesday into Wednesday. A weak inverted trough is still
possible along the eastern coast, moving northward under the
ridge, Wednesday night into Thursday night. There will once
again be minimal chances for precipitation. There is still some
uncertainty with its location and continued with the NBM
guidance. After this low pulls away, weak surface ridging
returns into the beginning of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. A few showers remain near
KHPN and KBDR this evening but should weaken through 2Z as the
move SE. PROB30 for brief MVFR conditions at those airports.
Another low chance for SHRA after 18Z Sunday for all terminals
but coverage too uncertain to include in the TAFs at this time.
S/SE flow early this evening becoming light and variable
overnight. Winds then become s at the coasts after 15Z Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected through Sunday morning.
Isolated SHRA possible Sunday afternoon with amendments
possible.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will be across the forecast waters
through Thursday with high pressure in control through
Wednesday. A weak trough moves northward along the coast
Thursday. Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through
Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean
beaches will remain low through Monday evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
