474
FXUS61 KOKX 150556
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
156 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A gale watch remains in effect on the coastal waters Monday
through Monday night.
No significant changes made to the potential of heavy showers,
thunderstorms, and strong winds late Sunday night into Monday
night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lighter winds along with mainly dry conditions overnight
into Sunday.
2) A strong frontal system brings potential of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and minor flooding along with
strong winds late Sunday night into Monday night.
3) A mainly dry and unseasonably cold airmass settles into the area
midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Winds becoming light overnight. High pressure over the area
shifts off the east coast by Sunday afternoon.
Low temperatures tonight fall into the upper 20s inland with
lower to middle 30s closer to the coast. Highs on Sunday should
end up close to seasonable levels in the mid to upper 40s, with
some locations near the NYC metro close to 50 degrees.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An amplifying upper trough tracks from the Great Plains on Sunday
towards the Ohio Valley and east coast Monday into Monday night.
Low pressure will deepen ahead of the trough near the Great Lakes on
Sunday and then lift into southeast Canada through Monday night.
This will send a strong frontal system across the region late Sunday
night into Monday night.
The main concerns for any impactful weather occur Monday into
Monday night with periods of showers, which may be locally heavy
at times, strong winds, and a chance of thunderstorms. There is
also a chance of localized minor coastal flooding at times of
high tide on Monday.
The associated warm front will quickly lift north of the area late
Sunday night into Monday morning. Warm advection showers will
quickly move across the area from south to north. There is some weak
instability aloft, so a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Brief
locally heavy rainfall is also possible in this shower activity.
The guidance signals that this area of showers will push off to the
northeast with the region in the warm sector late Monday morning
into the afternoon. An increasing low level jet supports
potential of showers at any point into the afternoon, but
uncertainty exists with the organization and duration of this
activity into the afternoon. Some of the guidance indicates
showers will be focused on convergence boundaries east of the
NYC metro with a relative min in activity from the city NW. Any
showers will be capable of moderate to locally heavy rainfall.
The strong cold front approaches in the evening and will be
accompanied by moderate to heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms.
Timing of the front still differs amongst the guidance with a range
from around sunset to mid to late evening. The front will interact
with anomalous moisture levels for this time of year with PWATs
close to 1.5 inches. Any surface based CAPE will largely reside to
our west away from the impacts of onshore flow. However, the strong
low level flow and elevated instability may be enough to support
some severe thunderstorms across NE NJ and potentially into the NYC
metro. SPC has a Day 3 marginal risk into this portion of the area
with the low risk for damaging wind gusts in this line of
convection. The convective line should weaken a bit as it heads
eastward, but locally heavy rain and gusty winds remain possible.
Showers should begin diminishing behind the front overnight into
early Tuesday morning.
Rainfall amounts range from about 1.25 to 2 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. Peak rainfall rates of 0.75-1"/hr in
the heaviest showers possible. The NBM probability for greater
than 2 inches is currently 15-30 percent.
Minor, nuisance flooding is the main concern with the rainfall.
WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall with
a localized risk for flash flooding. Some training of cells is
possible, but the system overall is progressive. There is also
fast flow in the low levels, so convective activity will be
moving quickly, limiting potential of significant flooding. Some
of the flashier rivers could rise close to flood stage. Have
held off on the issuance of a flood watch since the event is
still a few days out and there is uncertainty where the heaviest
rainfall will ultimately fall.
Strong winds are likely Monday into Monday night. The strong
southerly flow over the cold ocean will help set up an inversion
above the surface (around 1-2kft). This inversion is quite strong
and will likely limit the mixing of higher winds to the surface.
Winds will increase through the day, but the strongest winds appear
most likely in the late afternoon into the evening. Models indicate
a low level jet from 75-90 kt from 850-925 mb. Past wind research
per WFO BOX indicates that when there is the presence of a
strong inversion, about half the winds at 925 mb have the
potential to reach the surface. NBM probability for observing
wind gusts over 55 mph is also quite low, about 10 percent or
less. There is a chance the convective line with the cold front
could help mix down some of the higher winds. However, there is
a chance the convection weakens as it moves east of the NYC
metro. Therefore, no high wind watches have been issued for the
coast at this time based on these factors. There is a chance a
wind advisory will be needed as the event draws closer.
Localized minor coastal flooding and localized beach erosion are
also possible with this system given the expected magnitude of
S flow and associated wave action. Astronomical tides will start
rising early next week due to the approaching new moon. Tides
are low this weekend, so it will take a significant surge to
achieve widespread minor coastal flooding. Guidance has remained
steady over the last 24 hours. The main concern for any
localized minor coastal flooding continues to be with the most
vulnerable locations of the south shore back Bays of Nassau, and
western Great South Bay during times of high tide Monday and
Monday night.
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High pressure gradually builds in through the middle of the
week, bringing a colder and drier airmass to the area. Temperatures
Tuesday through Wednesday night will run about 10 degrees below
normal for mid-March.
While the flow weakens by Tuesday, gusts up to 30-35 mph are still
expected. Deep mixing is seen in latest model soundings (about 800-
700mb in both the NAM and GFS), but winds at the top of the mixed
layer will be gradually weakening and only look to be upwards of
around 40kt at this time. The colder temperatures combined with
gusty winds will keep wind chill values on Tuesday in the low 30s.
Additionally, if winds lighten up quick enough Tuesday night, there
is potential for low temperatures to end up a bit lower than
forecast in the normal cool spots across the interior and LI Pine
Barrens.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area overnight and then passes
to the east on Sunday. A strong frontal system will impact the
area Sunday night through Monday night.
Mainly VFR. MVFR develops 03-06Z Monday with a chance of rain.
Winds light northerly at the NYC metro terminals, become NE
toward the AM push, and winds may become more variable. At the
outlying terminals light and variable winds. Sunday morning
winds become E/SE in the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt.
There is a chance that gusts are more occasional before ending
during Sunday evening. LLWS develops toward 03Z Monday along the
coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may be more variable for the Sun AM push.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Sunday night: IFR, LIFR possible, with showers. A chance
of thunderstorms toward daybreak. SE wind gusts near 20 kt,
increasing to near 30 kt by daybreak Monday. Southerly LLWS at
the coastal terminals.
Monday: IFR or lower, with rain, heavy at times in the
afternoon and early evening. A chance of thunderstorms. Winds
become southerly early, with gusts 30-40 kt, highest at the
coast. Peak gusts up to 45 kt possible along the coast late day
into the evening. LLWS into the evening. Winds decrease
slightly and become more westerly late Monday night, gusts 25-35
kt. Rain tapers off, possibly mixing with snow as it does so.
Tuesday: Rain/snow ends early in the morning. MVFR or lower
possible early, improving to VFR by afternoon. WSW gusts 25 to
30 kt.
Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA for ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet for elevated seas
near 5 ft overnight.
After a brief lull in conditions Sunday, winds and seas quickly
increase Sunday night into Monday morning, ramping up further
into Monday evening. SCA conditions are likely Sunday night,
with a chance of gale force winds Monday into Monday night.
There is a chance for storm force gusts on the ocean. Wind gusts
in recent events with a strong inversion have come in lower
than forecast. While this event will have higher winds below the
inversion, not enough confidence to issue a storm watch at this
time. Have issued a gale watch on the waters Monday through
Monday night. Will continue to mention potential for storm force
gusts in the HWO.
Gusty winds continue on Tuesday with SCA likely on all waters
through the day. SCA conditions could continue on the ocean through
potentially Wednesday morning as elevated seas linger. Sub SCA
conditions expected thereafter through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DS/JT/JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/JT/JM
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
