000
FXUS61 KOKX 230541
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
141 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes through the region overnight followed by
high pressure building in from the southwest. A cold front
pushes through the region tonight followed by high pressure
building in from the southwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track late this evening. An upper-level
trough and associated occluded surface low pressure system will
move its way northeastward into Ontario. A cold front will push
in from the west further increasing moisture ahead of it.
Rain is ongoing, with the steadiest rain expected to occur
through 06z, tapering off from west to east after 06z and
clearing eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut by
early Wednesday morning. Nudged rainfall amounts down slightly
based on what has been observed, and radar trends. Feel a third
to a half an inch is likely on average.

Low temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, in the upper
40s across the interior and in the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The cold front pushes through by early morning with dry air
filtering in quickly behind resulting in a mostly sunny day. It will
also be breezy as high pressure builds in from the southwest and low
pressure departs. With ample sunshine, temperatures will warm a few
degrees above normal, into the low to mid 60s.

Mainly clear sky expected for Wednesday night, with winds
diminishing and temperatures cooling off into the upper 30s across
the interior and the Pine Barrens of Long Island. Elsewhere
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s and around 50 across
the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s on Thursday with high
pressure centered southeast of the forecast area. The NBM was used
for temperatures. A clipper type system is then possible for late
Friday into Saturday. The ECMWF remains consistent with this
feature. A blend of the model data was used for precipitation
probabilities, which were capped at chance. The GFS would produce
less rain. The NBM was used for high temperatures Friday and
Saturday, with the CONSMOS used at night. A chance of rain returns
Sunday and Monday due to a southern stream upper low and Gulf of
Mexico moisture. The GFS is now spinning up a surface low south of
the area on Sunday, producing a wind driven rain. The forecast has
been trended in this direction with support from the 12Z ECMWF. A
large upper trough then approaches for the beginning of next week.
Chances for rain have been included in the forecast with the
possibility of falling heights. The NBM with minor adjustments was
used for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure system with a trailing cold front moves across the
region overnight with light showers continuing into early
Wednesday morning. Conditions start to improve after 09z as
drier air moves in from the west.

Mainly IFR conditions or less are expected at the TAFs sites
until the early morning hours. Ceiling heights are expected to
remain between 300-700 ft with low visibilities through about
08z-10z before MVFR conditions move into to start the day. A
return to VFR conditions are expected at most sites by 12z.

East winds gradually become southerly winds prior to the
frontal passage. Then winds become northerly behind the cold
front between 06-12z Wednesday and northwesterly Wednesday
afternoon with gusts near 20kt possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Friday-Saturday...Chc MVFR and rain Fri PM into SAT AM.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecast is on track. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for the ocean waters through Wednesday evening. Wind gusts on
the ocean will increase late tonight and could reach 25 kt into
Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes through the waters.
Ocean seas will then remain elevated through Wednesday, mainly
due to easterly swells. Seas will begin to subside Wednesday
afternoon with winds falling below 25 kts.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure may develop south of
the waters on Sunday, producing at least advisory level winds across
the entire area. If some of the modeling is correct, gales with seas
building up to 12 ft will be possible on the ocean. For now, WNA was
capped at 8 ft on the ocean. Conditions gradually improve behind the
system on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the
air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CB
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BC/DJ/16
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...CB
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion