000
FXUS61 KOKX 220246
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1046 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach from the tonight and pass
through during Tuesday. High pressure builds in Wednesday
through Friday, then offshore for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Shwrs and tstms weakening across the area tngt. The watch has
been canceled. Additional shwrs, along with perhaps an embedded
tstm, approaching from the sw. This activity is weakening as
well though as it approaches a more stable and worked over
airmass.

In addition to any pcpn overnight, there could be some dense
fog over SE CT and parts of eastern LI - this will need to be
watched as well. Lows tonight will be mostly in the middle to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front passes through Tuesday with showers likely
through much of the day. Some of these showers have the
potential to be briefly moderate at times with an isolated
embedded thunderstorm especially in the morning. Showers should
persist much of the day as it moves eastward. With overcast
skies, highs will likely only get into the low to middle 70s
with some warmer spots in the eastern portion of the CWA,
especially if there is clearing in the morning.

Conditions will be improving and drying into the afternoon with
only a slight chance of isolated showers after 8PM. Afterwards
skies become clear for Tuesday night and dew points and
temperatures drop behind the frontal passage. Lows will be in
the upper 40s and lower 50s for the Lower Hudson Valley and
portions of far interior CT. Near the coastline, lows will be in
the middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fair wx Wed and Thu as high pres builds over the region. Temps
close to or a few degrees blw normal with a Canadian airmass
transitioning thru. Temps similar on Fri, but the influence of
the high will weaken as swly flow aloft begins to develop. Most
likely still dry, but some slight chances for shwrs and tstms
have been included per the NBM with some waa aloft beginning. A
warming trend can be expected for the weekend as the sw flow
strengthens. Humidity will increase on Sun, resulting in higher
apparent temps. The warm and humid wx will continue into Mon
with little change in the airmass. Shwrs and tstms possible Sun-
Mon. Best chances during the peak heating hours each day. The
sw flow pattern is usually best for the nw interior zones. Much
of LI and CT, especially ern portions, could be completely dry
thru the period. The NBM was generally followed.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front slowly approaches tonight and passes through
Tuesday morning.

Mostly MVFR to IFR for the overnight hours, although this might
take a few hours longer to occur than currently forecast.
Cigs/vsbys then improve Tues morning before lowering once again
with showers in the afternoon. A slight chance of a thunderstorm
exists with these showers, but not enough coverage and
confidence to include in the TAFs at this time.

S-SW winds this evening 10-15 kt shift toward W overnight.
NW winds for Tuesday 10-15 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Flight category changes could be off by 2-3 hours. There is
potential that KTEB/KEWR/KLGA remain VFR all night.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower mainly in the afternoon. Showers
likely with chance of tstms.
.Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
.Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Waves on the ocean look to rise closer to 5 feet tonight as
well and remain elevated through much of the day on Tuesday,
especially for areas east of FII. SCA east of FII is through
22Z Tuesday as seas will be 5-6 feet much of the day. This may
have to be extended again into Tuesday night as seas are slow to
fall.

Winds will be blw sca lvls on Wed, but seas may linger near 5 ft on
the ern ocean. All areas will be blw sca lvls on Thu. Seas may touch
5 ft on the ocean Fri, but the prob is low attm. Conditions
otherwise blw advy criteria. A sca may be needed for all waters,
especially the ocean, over the weekend as ssw winds increase.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall occasionally occurs through Tuesday
afternoon. Nothing more than minor nuisance flooding likely
occurs.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk is forecast at the ocean beaches on
Tuesday, with a moderate risk for Wed.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion