378
FXUS61 KOKX 270755
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region today and tonight, then
remains Sunday. An offshore low approaches eastern Long Island
and the southern New England coast Sunday night into Monday
before dissipating over New England. Several disturbances move
through the area over the week resulting in unsettled conditions
through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper level trough moved south and east of the region as an
amplifying ridge moved into the Great Lakes region. The mid and
high clouds that had been over the southern portion of the
region have now shifted to the south in response to the trough
moving south. The ridge builds slowly eastward through today, as
surface high pressure builds toward the northeast and mid
Atlantic region. Conditions will be mostly clear with near
normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level cutoff low develops south of Long Island tonight
as the upper ridge and surface high continue to build over the
region. The surface low will be deepening south of Long Island.
There is some uncertainty as where the cutoff low will drift,
however, the consensus is for the upper and surface low to
drift northwestward toward eastern Long Island and the southern
New England coast Sunday night into Monday. And with the low
moving into the strong ridge, the surface low is expected to
weaken and nearly dissipate over New England into upstate New
York during Monday. Have maintained chance probabilities across
mainly the eastern sections Sunday night into Monday, although
these could increase to likely if the consensus remains for the
low to approach the region. Temperatures will be near seasonal
normals tonight through Monday. Monday will be more humid as dew
points rise into the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:
* More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms midweek with
a frontal system approaching from the west
* Increasing heat and humidity late next week, heat indices may
approach or exceed 95F at times across portions of the region
The area remains under an upper-level low Monday night and into
Tuesday as it pushes northward and becomes reintroduced to the large
scale flow. Despite it`s departure, additional mid-level energy
approaches from the west in series which reinforces and maintains
the upper level trough over the area through much of the week. This
will result in unsettled conditions with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms nearly every day through next weekend.
The best chance for showers and storms appears to be mid-week,
generally Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a frontal system pushes
a cold front through the area. It`s much too early to determine if
there will be any hydrologic concerns as models disagree with the
progression of the disturbance, but a moist airmass will allow for
potentially heavy rainfall in any thunderstorms.
The upper level trough remains in place behind the cold frontal
passage with mid-level heights attempting to rise. A surface high
pressure over the Western Atlantic will promote a southerly flow
which will both advect moisture and warmth into the area. This will
likely result in another round of heat index values of 95 to 100
degrees for portions of the area toward the end of the week,
particularly Friday and Saturday, but potentially as early as
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will track slowly east through this weekend.
VFR.
Winds are either light northerly or remain light and variable
through the morning. Winds will then veer around to the SE-S at less
than 10kt at the coastal terminals this afternoon as a weakness in
the ridge develops. KSWF looks more easterly, but light.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR....MVFR or IFR possible far eastern terminals.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers
and thunderstorms. S winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory criteria on
all waters today through mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches today through Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
