000
FXUS61 KOKX 020732
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
332 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches through this afternoon and then moves
through this evening and tonight. High pressure builds in Sunday
into Sunday night, moving offshore by Independence Day afternoon.
A warm front moves through early Tuesday as associated surface
low pressure passes to our north. An associated cold front then
moves through Tuesday night and may stall just offshore.
Unsettled weather could continue through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radar mosaic depicts a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms extending from interior northeast NJ through
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior Connecticut.
This activity should continue working its way eastward through
the early morning hours. The CAMs have been struggling with this
convection. Think there will be some scattered showers and
thunderstorms early this morning with the bulk of the activity
passing north of the NYC metro. However, the unstable air and
trough could support some elevated cells as far south as the
coast. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning and gusty winds are possible with this convection.

There should be an overall lull in shower and thunderstorm activity
after 12z through the early afternoon. However, the airmass
remains unstable and any subtle energy moving around the base of
the larger upper trough over the northeast could trigger some
isolated activity. The morning convection is also bringing
widespread debris clouds, which will likely continue moving
across the area this morning. However, there is a relative
agreement among the 00z guidance that this cloud cover will push
east and thin out by early this afternoon.

The main cold front will then approach this afternoon as
surface heating and destabilization takes place. There is still
some uncertainty with the evolution of the second round of
convection with the cold front in the latest CAMs. Some of this
appears to originate from how quickly the debris clouds move
away/dissipate. Another factor is some of the models are
depicting a deeper mixed layer which is helping to lower dew
points into the 60s. Have also noted a few recent HRRR runs
indicated some capping this afternoon. The models that are more
unstable are generally keeping the dew points in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Lapse rates do steepen in the afternoon as well,
which should help compensate for any mixing out of dew points.

Convection should begin developing around the middle of the
afternoon and continue into the early evening hours.
Convergence along the front may become enhanced as it interacts
with afternoon sea breezes closer to the coast. A modest middle
level flow brings about 35-45 kt of shear within an average of
about 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE. SPC has maintained the slight risk
for severe thunderstorms with the main threat damaging wind
gusts. There is also an isolated severe hail risk (1" diameter).
Any storm could produce frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall as well. The heavy rainfall could lead to minor urban
flooding with an isolated flash flood occurrence possible.

The severe threat could linger early this evening near the coast
since the cold front will be slow to move offshore. The cold
front then moves offshore early Sunday morning with improving
conditions and an end to any convection.

Temperatures today will be well into the 80s, with the metro
locations once again getting to around 90. Lows tonight look to be
in the 60s to around 70. Drier air should begin filtering into the
interior early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in on Sunday. Some high clouds early will
give way to mostly sunny skies. Dew points will be noticeably
lower and generally in the 50s. Temperatures will still be a bit
above normal in the middle and upper 80s. The high pressure
remains in place Sunday night leading to mostly clear skies and
comfortable temperatures in the upper 50s inland and lower to
middle 60s elsewhere.

The high moves offshore on Independence Day. Heights aloft will
be rising, but overall there is not too much change in sensible
weather from Sunday. Temperatures look seasonable in the lower
to middle 80s with comfortable dew points in the 50s.

Shortwave energy rounding the periphery of the southern ridge
may approach at night, bringing increasing clouds. Conditions
should mostly be dry, with just a slight chance of a shower well
north and west early Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No changes made to the long term period.

An active wx pattern could be shaping up for mid to late next
week as multiple disturbances ride atop a ridge over the
central U.S. and then head ESE toward the Northeast and/or Mid
Atlantic in WNW flow aloft between the ridge and an upper trough
over eastern Canada.

Tuesday morning a warm front moves through the area as the
flow becomes southerly and strengthens. Associated surface low
pressure passes just to our north and will eventually drag a
cold front through Tuesday night. This system will bring chances
of rain starting early Tuesday through Tuesday night. With
enough instability progged, have also included a slight chance
of thunderstorms starting Tuesday afternoon.

Uncertainty increases after Tuesday night. An unsettled pattern
looks to continue through the end of the week and have maintained
slight chance to chance rain through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight and moves
into the region today and tonight.

VFR conditions are expected into overnight with mainly dry
conditions. However, chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase between 07Z and 12Z Saturday. Any storms will bring
potential MVFR visibilities. Also, MVFR stratus is expected for
some terminals east of NYC with IFR stratus possible for these
terminals.

Then after a lull in showers and thunderstorm activity to start
the day Saturday for morning into early afternoon, chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. MVFR will be possible at times and IFR and
gusty winds will also be possible for some thunderstorms. The
window for thunderstorms placed in the TAF is 19-00Z in PROB30
group, but this time window could easily get changed on either
side by a few hours.

Winds will be SW around 10-12 kt through much of the TAF
period. There will be some gusts to near 20 kt for some
terminals into the overnight. Winds become more W-NW late in
the TAF period for the 30 hr TAF sites.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine timing of thunderstorms which could
be a few hours off from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sat night...Possible SHRA/TSRA in the evening with MVFR/IFR
possible. Otherwise, MVFR possible with patchy fog late
especially where winds become light.
.Sun...Mainly VFR, period of MVFR possible in AM.
.Mon...Mainly VFR.
.Tue...Chance of MVFR in SHRA. Slight chance of TSRA. SW gusts
15-20 kt.
.Wed...Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on the Bays and eastern Sound have fallen below SCA levels
so the Advisory has been cancelled. Marginal gusts to around 25
kt are possible today on the ocean with seas 4 to 6 ft. The SCA
remains in effect through 04z and it is mainly for seas this
afternoon and evening. Conditions should then be below SCA
levels late tonight into Sunday as a cold front moves offshore
and high pressure builds over the northeast. Sub-SCA conditions
continue on Monday.

Winds and waves approach SCA criteria again on Tuesday as low
pressure passes to our north. Otherwise, conditions remain
below SCA criteria through the remainder of the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms this morning and then again this
afternoon and evening may bring locally heavy rainfall that
results in minor urban and poor drainage flooding. An isolated
flash flooding occurrence cannot be ruled out, but substantial
hydrologic impacts look unlikely.

No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time Sunday through
next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk for today with a S-SW wind
wave and 5 to 6 ft waves.

A lingering southeast swell will result in a moderate rip
current risk on Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion