807
FXUS61 KOKX 181123
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north of the region this morning. Low
pressure developing along a cold front over the central United
States today will track northeast into northern New England by
Thursday night, sending a cold front across the region Thursday
night. High pressure builds in thereafter and generally remains
in control through early next week. A few disturbances may move
through during this period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A warm front moving into southern New Jersey is expected to
move north of the area this morning. Ahead of the front dense
fog was across much of the region, Long Island, Southern
Connecticut, and Southern Westchester county. With the warm
front a little slower to move northward have extended and
expanded the dense fog advisory until 900 AM EDT.
With little to no CAPE or instability this morning, have
removed the mention of thunder. However, in the warm sector this
afternoon some surface based instability and elevated CAPE
develop, and with weak upper energy moving through the region,
isolated thunderstorms will be possible. The atmosphere will
become moisture laden with precipitable water values increasing
to 2 to 2.25 inches. Any showers and thunderstorms that develop
have the potential of producing heavy rainfall, as the storm
will be relatively slow moving there is a chance of local
nuisance and urban flooding, mainly across northeastern New
Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, and into New York City.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Once the upper disturbance moves through the region this
evening, dry weather is expected into Thursday morning. With the
area in a warm and humid airmass air temperatures are expected
to range in the mid 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland,
and with dew points rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s heat
indices will peak in the mid 90s to near 100. The area will
become increasing unstable during the afternoon into the
evening, and with the approach of a cold front and shortwave
showers and thunderstorms become likely. Some of the
thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind gusts the
primary threat, small hail is also possible, and an isolated
tornado and/or waterspout cannot be ruled out. The Storm
Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a slight risk,
with the remainder in the marginal risk for severe weather.
While heavy rainfall is also possible the storms will be moving
fairly quickly, and training is not expected. With the passage
of the cold front Thursday night the showers and thunderstorms
will end. High pressure then builds toward the region for
Friday, with slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bit of a pattern change as we head into this weekend and early
next week. Heights aloft start rising Friday night as a broad
upper level ridge builds in over the eastern half of the
country. At the surface, high pressure generally dominates. This
pattern will lead to hot and humid conditions, with potential
for heat headlines.
Highest confidence in high heat is Monday and Tuesday once the
upper level ridge establishes itself more. Away from the coast
expecting mid to upper 90s each day with upper 60s/lower 70s
dewpoints resulting in max heat indices 100-105. While Sunday
will still be hot, there is some uncertainty given some guidance
now hinting at energy rounding the base of the ridge and
bringing clouds and showers. This will have a big impact on
temperatures and will have to monitor this trend. For now stuck
with NBM for PoPs for this which has only slight chance late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will pass through this morning.
Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions, with low stratus, drizzle and
areas of dense fog, should persist through this morning.
Conditions improve in the afternoon to MVFR and potentially VFR.
Highest chances for VFR is for NYC terminals north and west.
Showers with a chance for thunderstorms return in late
afternoon/evening. Uncertainty remains for tonight surrounding
the chance for fog or low ceilings redeveloping. VFR cigs
expected after 10z Thursday with fog potentially lingering.
Winds remain light S/SE. Light winds turn SW tonight and pick up
to around 10kt by Thursday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD likely for flight categories deviating from forecast.
Low confidence forecast tonight with uncertainty in fog and low
cigs redeveloping.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Thursday: Any early morning low cloud/fog (should it occur)
improves to VFR by 10-13Z. Showers/tstms with IFR then possible
in the afternoon/early evening, some with locally strong winds
from the NYC metros north/west.
Friday through Sunday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A Dense Fog Advisory now is in effect until 900 AM EDT for the
forecast waters, except New York Harbor, with visibilities less
than 1 NM. With the passage of a warm front this morning
visibilities will be improving. Depending on the timing of the
warm front the Dense Fog Advisory may need to be extended.
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels today into Thursday
afternoon, then with an increasing southwest flow ahead of a
cold front Thursday gusts may be near 25 kt on the ocean waters,
and possibly into the south shore bays, late in the day and
Thursday evening. In addition, ocean seas build to 5 feet.
Behind the cold front gusts will fall below 25 kt, however ocean
seas will remain elevated through Thursday night, and possibly
into early Friday morning.
Winds and waves are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria this weekend through early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Up to a quarter inch of rainfall is expected across southern
Connecticut and Suffolk county into this evening. One half to
three quarters of an inch, with locally higher amounts, is
possible across the lower Hudson Valley, northeastern New
Jersey, and New York City into this evening, and local
nuisance and urban flooding will be possible.
Locally heavy downpours are possible with any showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the evening. However, the
risk of flooding will be mitigated by the speed of any cells and
lack of overall cell training.
There are no hydrologic concerns this weekend through early next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean
beaches is moderate today and Thursday. Increasing SW flow late
Thursday afternoon may result in an elevated risk for rip
currents later in the day.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ071-
078>081-177-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-
335-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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