644
FXUS61 KOKX 112348
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made since the last update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably warm Saturday.
2) Showers expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. Heavy
downpours and isolated thunderstorms are possible, with a
threat for localized flash flooding.
3) Dry and seasonable conditions early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will remain over the region tonight and slide
offshore during the day on Saturday. With high pressure over the
region, expect good radiational cooling conditions tonight with
mostly clear skies and light winds. Lows tonight will fall into
the 40s across outlying areas with 50s and 60s elsewhere. There
is also the potential for radiational fog across outlying
coastal areas and river valleys.
Seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected on Saturday with
increasing clouds and gradually increasing humidity in a
strengthening onshore flow regime as the high moves offshore
and warm front approaches from the SW. Highs on Saturday will be
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A frontal system will lift into the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic on
Saturday and then through the region Saturday night into Sunday
morning.
A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along this front and
move across the region. A deep SW flow aloft and increasing lift is
expected ahead of approaching shortwave. An increasingly tropical
airmass with PWATs of 2" to 2 1/4", weakly unstable (tall skinny
CAPE) and deeply saturated environmental profile will be sufficient
to develop widespread showers (perhaps isolated thunderstorm) over
the region Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The primary forecast challenge will be where the warm front and
associated frontal wave end up with respect to the local area. There
is a fairly consistent signal in operational models for an axis of
heavy rainfall along the track of the frontal wave/warm front in
response to the enhanced moisture convergence/lift of the tropical
airmass.
Forecast models continue to signal a 1-3" swath of rain in the
vicinity of this feature. This is now also starting to be noted in
the some of the CAM`s. The narrow swath of these higher amounts
seems reasonable as environment would be conducive to 2"/hr
rainfall rates with any training of downpours/convection. This
presents at least an isolated flash flood threat, with potential
for it to increase to a scattered flash threat if warm
front/surface wave eventually align over the region.
Outside of this narrow area of concern, a consistent signal for
an areawide averaged 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch of rainfall Sat night into
Sun AM. Overall the trend is increasing for a widespread 1/2 to 1
1/2" of rain, and potential for a swath of 1-3" of rain (with low
predictability on exact location).
Drying, but seasonably warm and humid, conditions are likely
late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as the deep moisture
axis moves offshore in wake of shortwave and surface wave. A
cold front follows Sunday evening into Sunday night, with an
isolated shower cannot be ruled out.
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week with temps
running slightly below normal and low humidity level.
High pressure moves offshore for midweek with return flow
giving way to temps moderating slightly above normal and
increase humidity levels for mid to late week.
A cold front may press down on the area late in the week, but
overall limited chances for precip till late week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the region tonight shifts offshore Saturday to
the south and east of Long Island. A frontal system approaches from
the south and west late in the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected although there is potential for
some MVFR with localized patchy fog outside of NYC terminals early
Saturday morning and a low probability for some shower activity
Saturday evening into the Saturday night overnight period. Only have
KSWF mentioned in TAFs for the MVFR visibility fog early
Saturday (07-11Z) and the MVFR possibility Saturday night is
just for the 30 hr TAF sites but not mentioned in TAFs yet with
low shower probability.
Winds are going to be under 10 kts tonight into early Saturday and
generally northerly in direction although some variability in
direction is expected at KJFK this evening and for some non-NYC
terminals late tonight into Saturday morning.
Winds become more easterly early Saturday and then mostly southeast
Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds near 10 kts expected Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night with some gusts to near 15 kt for NYC
terminals Saturday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of more NE wind tonight could be off by a few hours. At
times, wind direction may become more variable tonight into
early Saturday.
Occasional wind gusts 15-20 kt possible Saturday afternoon into
early Saturday evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: Increasing chances for showers, becoming likely
to expected late at night. Mainly VFR initially, becoming MVFR to
IFR late. A slight chance of thunderstorms late.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR to IFR with showers, heavy at times, mainly
during the day. Localized LIFR possible. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early. Improving and drying conditions at night
with a return to mainly VFR.
Monday: VFR. Northerly wind gusts 15-20 kt day into early evening.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through much of the forecast period.
S winds could increase to 15 to 20kt and seas to around 4 ft on the
ocean waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with a weak frontal
wave moving across the ocean waters.
Surf Zone...The rip current risk becomes low on Saturday with
several sets of 1-ft S-SE wind waves and swells. The risk likely
increases to moderate on Sunday with increasing onshore flow and
building S-SE wind waves.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BC/NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/Goodman
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
