000
FXUS61 KOKX 220027
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
827 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary southeast of
Long Island for the next several days, become post-tropical on
Friday if not sooner, then dissipate this weekend. High pressure
build late Friday into Saturday then remains over the region
into early next week. Hurricane Maria is expected to pass
offshore of the east coast and the move farther offshore mid to
late next week as a cold front approaches. The cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High
pressure builds in behind the front Thursday. Please refer to
National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose and
Maria.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TS Jose will remain stationary well SE of eastern Long Island.
The tightest pressure gradient between Jose and the building
high will reside across the Twin Forks of Long island and
southeast Connecticut tonight, where wind gusts 25-30 mph are
still possible tonight. Mid Deck shield should progress
westward across LI and CT tonight, with a few bands of showers
into SE CT and eastern Long Island. Areas from NYC and north/west
should remain dry.

Lows tonight will range from the lower/mid 60s along the coast
and in NYC metro, to 55-60 inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With better daytime mixing winds out east should be a little
stronger, with gusts 30-35 mph through much of the day.
Otherwise sct-numerous morning showers over Long Island and
southern CT should diminish in coverage through the afternoon.
High temps on Fri should be a little lower than those of today,
ranging from the lower/mid 70s across most of CT/Long Island,
to the lower 80s in NYC/NE NJ.

Skies should gradually clear from west to east Fri night,
becoming mostly clear form NYC north/west and ptcldy over
western Long Island/CT, but remaining overcast out east. Lows
Fri night should have similar range to those expected for
tonight, from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Dangerous rip currents will continue at the ocean beaches on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weakening post-tropical Jose lingers about 200-300 miles
offshore of Montauk Saturday and becomes a remnant low Sunday,
then dissipates. As Jose is expected to drift slightly westward
a few showers may brush the far eastern areas, mainly
southeastern Connecticut and the twin forks of Long Island,
Saturday morning. Meanwhile an upper ridge and surface high will
be building into the northeast Saturday and remain across the
region into early next week.

The upper ridge and surface high weaken Tuesday into Wednesday
as a northern stream long wave trough digs into Great Lakes and
northern plains into Thursday. Meanwhile Maria will be moving
offshore of the east coast. There are timing difference with the
timing of a cold front expected to move through Wednesday night
into early Thursday at this time. The upper trough and surface
cold front is expected to move Maria farther offshore mid to
late next week. Please refer to National Hurricane Center
products for more details on Maria. Once again there will be
increasing beach hazards with building surf and the possibility
of dangerous rip currents in advance of Maria. There is also
uncertainty with how much precipitation will accompany both
Maria and the cold front. At this time will be keeping
probabilities at slight chance to low end chance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tropical Storm Jose will meander off the southern New England
coast through Friday.

Generally VFR. KGON may see a periods of MVFR tonight into Fri
morning with -shra.

Occasional gusts top 20 kt overnight. Gusts of 20-25 kt, with
the highest across the eastern terminals, developing Friday
morning.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of gusts re-developing Friday morning
may be off by 1 to 2 hrs.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of gusts re-developing Friday morning
may be off by 1 to 2 hrs.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of gusts re-developing Friday morning
may be off by 1 to 2 hrs.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of gusts re-developing Friday morning
may be off by 1 to 2 hrs.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SunDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night...VFR. Gusts subsiding in the evening.
.Saturday-Tuesday...VFR. Wind becoming N-NE 10-20 kt. A few
higher gusts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conds will continue for the ocean and the eastern waters late
tonight into Fri morning as winds increase, continuing all day
Fri. This should also bring SCA conditions for the south shore
bays. Most places will gusts to 25-30 kt, but think a small
portion of the easternmost ocean zone SE of Montauk could see a
brief period of minimal tropical storm conditions or close to it
Fri morning. In collaboration with NHC and BOX decided to stick
with SCA for the zone but mention the window for stronger
conditions.

Long period easterly swells will likely continue on the ocean
waters into the weekend.

Saturday winds across the eastern ocean waters may be around small
craft as gusty winds from weakening Jose impact there area. There is
uncertainty as to the strength and westward extent of the gusty
winds. Then winds will be below small craft levels through the
middle of next week. Across the remainder of the waters winds and
gusts remain below small craft levels. Rough seas and swells will be
affecting the ocean waters with small craft seas expected Saturday
through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems anticipated through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TS Jose will remain nearly stationary a couple hundred miles SE
of eastern Long Island, with Ekman forcing keeping elevated
water levels along the coast despite offshore winds.

This will have water levels peaking with the Friday morning
high tide cycle, resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding
in the south shore bays of Western LI and NYC and localized
minor elsewhere. There is a low probability of localized
moderate coastal flooding along the south shore back bays of
Long Island Fri am.

Water levels should gradually drop Friday night into the
weekend, with any minor flooding localized to the most
vulnerable south shore bay locales Friday Night.

Rough surf will also continue into the weekend, but dune
erosion from this point on should be localized.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ080-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ330-340-
     350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion