WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Morning Forecasts
Updated: 03-28-24 at 5:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-28-24 |
44 |
|
53 |
51 |
|
38 |
37 |
|
56 |
52 |
|
35 |
36 |
|
57 |
54 |
|
43 |
39 |
|
60 |
57 |
|
39 |
03-27-24 |
55 |
58.1 |
56 |
44 |
38.1 |
44 |
52 |
|
53 |
37 |
|
37 |
52 |
|
55 |
36 |
|
34 |
56 |
|
58 |
39 |
|
40 |
03-26-24 |
35 |
49.1 |
51 |
45 |
36.0 |
39 |
39 |
58.1 |
56 |
53 |
38.1 |
43 |
43 |
|
53 |
51 |
|
38 |
37 |
|
55 |
50 |
|
35 |
03-25-24 |
34 |
51.1 |
55 |
49 |
33.4 |
34 |
35 |
49.1 |
54 |
47 |
36.0 |
38 |
39 |
58.1 |
58 |
53 |
38.1 |
44 |
43 |
|
53 |
52 |
|
39 |
03-24-24 |
44 |
46.8 |
50 |
32 |
29.8 |
31 |
49 |
51.1 |
55 |
35 |
33.4 |
36 |
49 |
49.1 |
51 |
40 |
36.0 |
38 |
54 |
58.1 |
55 |
43 |
38.1 |
43 |
03-23-24 |
36 |
52.2 |
58 |
54 |
37.9 |
27 |
31 |
46.8 |
51 |
45 |
29.8 |
32 |
32 |
51.1 |
54 |
48 |
33.4 |
35 |
36 |
49.1 |
53 |
49 |
36.0 |
39 |
03-22-24 |
25 |
41.9 |
48 |
43 |
21.6 |
36 |
36 |
52.2 |
58 |
53 |
37.9 |
35 |
32 |
46.8 |
47 |
47 |
29.8 |
33 |
32 |
51.1 |
56 |
48 |
33.4 |
35 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
33.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
25.0 |
|
75.0 |
|
|
50.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
11.7 |
|
3.8 |
11.7 |
|
6.0 |
13.5 |
|
4.2 |
11.6 |
|
2.9 |
13.3 |
|
1.3 |
12.7 |
|
3.2 |
12.1 |
|
4.0 |
10.8 |
|
3.2 |
Net Error |
-11.7 |
|
3.1 |
11.7 |
|
2.4 |
-13.5 |
|
3.3 |
11.6 |
|
1.8 |
-13.3 |
|
1.2 |
12.7 |
|
3.2 |
-12.1 |
|
1.9 |
10.8 |
|
3.2 |
Std Dev |
5.9 |
|
1.4 |
5.3 |
|
3.8 |
5.7 |
|
1.0 |
4.7 |
|
1.0 |
2.9 |
|
0.6 |
1.1 |
|
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Mid-Day Forecasts
Updated: 03-28-24 at 11:00 am |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-28-24 |
52 |
|
54 |
37 |
|
39 |
52 |
|
56 |
36 |
|
34 |
54 |
|
58 |
39 |
|
43 |
57 |
|
61 |
39 |
|
37 |
03-27-24 |
55 |
58.1 |
55 |
45 |
45.3 |
44 |
55 |
|
52 |
35 |
|
37 |
55 |
|
55 |
35 |
|
35 |
55 |
|
58 |
45 |
|
40 |
03-26-24 |
47 |
49.1 |
51 |
39 |
38.1 |
39 |
53 |
58.1 |
55 |
43 |
45.3 |
44 |
51 |
|
53 |
37 |
|
39 |
50 |
|
55 |
36 |
|
35 |
03-25-24 |
49 |
51.1 |
54 |
35 |
36.0 |
34 |
47 |
49.1 |
52 |
39 |
38.1 |
39 |
53 |
58.1 |
59 |
43 |
45.3 |
44 |
52 |
|
53 |
38 |
|
37 |
03-24-24 |
44 |
46.8 |
48 |
32 |
33.4 |
30 |
49 |
51.1 |
54 |
35 |
36.0 |
34 |
49 |
49.1 |
51 |
40 |
38.1 |
38 |
54 |
58.1 |
60 |
43 |
45.3 |
44 |
03-23-24 |
55 |
52.2 |
55 |
35 |
29.8 |
28 |
45 |
46.8 |
51 |
35 |
33.4 |
33 |
45 |
51.1 |
55 |
35 |
36.0 |
37 |
45 |
49.1 |
51 |
40 |
38.1 |
38 |
03-22-24 |
43 |
41.9 |
47 |
36 |
37.9 |
36 |
53 |
52.2 |
59 |
32 |
29.8 |
32 |
47 |
46.8 |
47 |
32 |
33.4 |
33 |
48 |
51.1 |
54 |
34 |
36.0 |
36 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
1 |
|
2 |
5 |
|
5 |
2 |
|
0 |
3 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
4 |
0 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
% Succ |
16.7 |
|
33.3 |
83.3 |
|
83.3 |
40.0 |
|
0.0 |
60.0 |
|
80.0 |
50.0 |
|
75.0 |
75.0 |
|
100.0 |
|
|
66.7 |
66.7 |
|
100.0 |
Ave Error |
2.3 |
|
2.8 |
1.8 |
|
1.9 |
2.4 |
|
4.0 |
1.6 |
|
1.4 |
2.9 |
|
1.7 |
1.7 |
|
0.7 |
3.8 |
|
2.2 |
2.1 |
|
0.5 |
Net Error |
-1.0 |
|
1.8 |
0.3 |
|
-1.6 |
-2.1 |
|
2.7 |
0.3 |
|
-0.1 |
-2.8 |
|
1.7 |
-0.7 |
|
-0.2 |
-3.8 |
|
2.2 |
-0.8 |
|
-0.5 |
Std Dev |
0.4 |
|
0.8 |
1.6 |
|
0.8 |
1.2 |
|
0.8 |
0.5 |
|
0.4 |
1.1 |
|
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Evening Forecasts
Updated: 03-28-24 at 5:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-28-24 |
52 |
|
39 |
38 |
|
56 |
54 |
|
34 |
36 |
|
57 |
55 |
|
44 |
41 |
|
59 |
57 |
|
42 |
38 |
|
55 |
03-27-24 |
54 |
45.3 |
44 |
44 |
58.1 |
52 |
50 |
|
38 |
37 |
|
56 |
54 |
|
35 |
38 |
|
58 |
55 |
|
39 |
39 |
|
58 |
03-26-24 |
40 |
38.1 |
41 |
54 |
49.1 |
57 |
43 |
45.3 |
44 |
54 |
58.1 |
53 |
37 |
|
40 |
52 |
|
56 |
36 |
|
35 |
55 |
|
58 |
03-25-24 |
32 |
36.0 |
36 |
43 |
51.1 |
53 |
35 |
38.1 |
40 |
54 |
49.1 |
58 |
43 |
45.3 |
44 |
52 |
58.1 |
53 |
37 |
|
35 |
51 |
|
52 |
03-24-24 |
32 |
33.4 |
32 |
48 |
46.8 |
55 |
35 |
36.0 |
35 |
48 |
51.1 |
51 |
39 |
38.1 |
38 |
54 |
49.1 |
57 |
43 |
45.3 |
44 |
53 |
58.1 |
54 |
03-23-24 |
35 |
29.8 |
28 |
45 |
52.2 |
50 |
35 |
33.4 |
30 |
45 |
46.8 |
54 |
35 |
36.0 |
37 |
45 |
51.1 |
53 |
45 |
38.1 |
39 |
55 |
49.1 |
56 |
03-22-24 |
36 |
37.9 |
35 |
51 |
41.9 |
58 |
32 |
29.8 |
30 |
44 |
52.2 |
51 |
33 |
33.4 |
32 |
48 |
46.8 |
54 |
36 |
36.0 |
34 |
49 |
51.1 |
55 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
3 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
0 |
|
0 |
% Succ |
50.0 |
|
66.7 |
16.7 |
|
16.7 |
40.0 |
|
80.0 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
75.0 |
|
100.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
33.3 |
|
100.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
Ave Error |
3.9 |
|
1.7 |
7.4 |
|
7.1 |
2.0 |
|
1.6 |
4.4 |
|
4.5 |
1.2 |
|
0.9 |
4.6 |
|
5.5 |
3.1 |
|
1.4 |
4.4 |
|
5.0 |
Net Error |
1.4 |
|
-0.8 |
-2.4 |
|
4.3 |
-0.5 |
|
-0.7 |
-2.5 |
|
1.9 |
-0.7 |
|
-0.4 |
-1.5 |
|
3.0 |
1.5 |
|
-0.8 |
-0.4 |
|
2.2 |
Std Dev |
2.4 |
|
0.9 |
3.9 |
|
3.0 |
0.7 |
|
0.3 |
0.6 |
|
2.8 |
0.6 |
|
0.2 |
0.8 |
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
Nighttime Forecasts
Updated: 03-27-24 at 11:00 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
03-27-24 |
44 |
|
44 |
50 |
|
52 |
37 |
|
38 |
54 |
|
56 |
38 |
|
35 |
55 |
|
58 |
39 |
|
44 |
57 |
|
61 |
03-26-24 |
40 |
38.1 |
38 |
54 |
49.1 |
57 |
43 |
|
44 |
54 |
|
53 |
37 |
|
39 |
52 |
|
56 |
36 |
|
35 |
55 |
|
58 |
03-25-24 |
32 |
36.0 |
36 |
43 |
51.1 |
52 |
35 |
38.1 |
40 |
54 |
49.1 |
56 |
43 |
|
44 |
52 |
|
53 |
37 |
|
39 |
51 |
|
53 |
03-24-24 |
32 |
33.4 |
33 |
48 |
46.8 |
54 |
35 |
36.0 |
33 |
48 |
51.1 |
51 |
39 |
38.1 |
37 |
54 |
49.1 |
59 |
43 |
|
44 |
53 |
|
53 |
03-23-24 |
30 |
29.8 |
27 |
44 |
52.2 |
49 |
29 |
33.4 |
30 |
48 |
46.8 |
54 |
35 |
36.0 |
34 |
49 |
51.1 |
51 |
39 |
38.1 |
39 |
53 |
49.1 |
56 |
03-22-24 |
36 |
37.9 |
36 |
51 |
41.9 |
57 |
32 |
29.8 |
29 |
44 |
52.2 |
51 |
33 |
33.4 |
32 |
48 |
46.8 |
54 |
36 |
36.0 |
35 |
49 |
51.1 |
51 |
03-21-24 |
25 |
21.6 |
25 |
42 |
41.4 |
48 |
35 |
37.9 |
35 |
51 |
41.9 |
58 |
31 |
29.8 |
34 |
47 |
52.2 |
49 |
32 |
33.4 |
34 |
48 |
46.8 |
55 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
4 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
4 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
66.7 |
|
66.7 |
33.3 |
|
16.7 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
20.0 |
|
40.0 |
100.0 |
|
75.0 |
25.0 |
|
25.0 |
100.0 |
|
100.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
Ave Error |
2.1 |
|
1.4 |
5.4 |
|
6.8 |
2.7 |
|
2.4 |
5.3 |
|
6.3 |
0.9 |
|
2.2 |
3.4 |
|
5.1 |
0.8 |
|
0.8 |
2.4 |
|
5.1 |
Net Error |
-0.3 |
|
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
|
5.8 |
-1.8 |
|
-1.6 |
0.8 |
|
5.8 |
0.2 |
|
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
|
3.5 |
-0.2 |
|
0.2 |
1.0 |
|
5.0 |
Std Dev |
1.1 |
|
1.1 |
2.8 |
|
4.4 |
1.1 |
|
0.6 |
2.1 |
|
2.8 |
0.0 |
|
0.5 |
0.8 |
|
2.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|